Sitra is responding to the rapidly changing global environment by examining both long-term megatrends and unexpected early signs of change through its weak signals project. A new magazine, JOS*, set in 2046, uses design fiction to explore alternative futures based on current developments. This approach aims to expand imagination and encourage discussions about sustainability and societal shifts. The magazine features speculative stories to make future scenarios more tangible, addressing provocative questions about privacy and mortality. It is targeted at foresight professionals and serves as an educational tool for encouraging future-oriented thinking in schools. Sitra hopes to spark bold conversations about the future and foster awareness of emerging phenomena.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increasing Pace of Change | The operating environment is rapidly evolving, affecting various sectors like economy and technology. | Shifting from a relatively stable environment to one characterized by rapid change and unpredictability. | In ten years, we may see industries adapting more fluidly to changes in technology and geopolitics. | The accelerating pace of technological advancement and global interconnectedness is driving this change. | 4 |
| Design Fiction as a Foresight Tool | Utilization of design fiction to explore multiple potential futures. | Moving from traditional predictions to imaginative explorations of possible futures. | In 10 years, design fiction could become a standard method for organizations to foresee and shape future trends. | The need for organizations to envision and prepare for several possible futures prompts the use of design fiction. | 5 |
| Focus on Weak Signals | Organizations are now paying more attention to weak signals of change. | Transitioning from neglecting subtle signals to actively monitoring them for societal shifts. | In a decade, early detection of weak signals could lead to more proactive adaptations in various sectors. | The realization that small signs can indicate significant future changes drives this focus. | 4 |
| Incorporation of Speculative Narratives | The use of speculative narratives to inspire thought about the future. | From purely analytical foresight to including imaginative storytelling about possible futures. | Ten years from now, speculative narratives could influence public policy and societal norms significantly. | A desire for broader engagement and understanding of future scenarios motivates this incorporation. | 3 |
| Educational Tools for Future Thinking | Development of tools and resources aimed at promoting future-oriented thinking in education. | Shift from traditional education to incorporating future-thinking methodologies. | In ten years, education systems may explicitly incorporate foresight methodologies into curricula. | The necessity for future-ready skills in a rapidly changing world encourages this trend. | 4 |
| Public Engagement in Foresight Activities | Encouragement of public participation in discussions about potential futures. | Changing from expert-led discussions to inclusive dialogues involving diverse voices. | Future discussions may become more democratized, incorporating wider perspectives and ideas. | The recognition of the value of diverse perspectives in foresight drives this engagement. | 4 |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Rapid Technological Change | Accelerating technological advancements may outpace ethical considerations, leading to societal disruptions and individual privacy concerns. |
| Unpredictable Global Events | Unexpected geopolitical and economic developments can destabilize societies and nations, creating waves of uncertainty and fear. |
| Diminished Privacy | Future scenarios where personal thoughts are not private could challenge individual freedoms and rights, altering social interactions. |
| Evolving Definitions of Life and Death | Shifts in the perception of life and death may impact societal norms, ethics, and grief processes. |
| Need for Future Readiness | The necessity for individuals and organizations to adapt their thinking and strategies in response to emerging societal shifts. |
| Limited Imagination of Future Scenarios | Overreliance on present-day experiences may hinder the ability to envision transformative futures, affecting innovation and adaptation. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Exploration of Alternative Futures | Creating speculative scenarios that challenge current assumptions and broaden perspectives on possible future developments. |
| Design Fiction as a Foresight Method | Using design fiction to make abstract future concepts tangible, facilitating discussions about potential societal shifts. |
| Weak Signals Identification | Spotting early signs of change to anticipate and adapt to emerging societal shifts and phenomena. |
| Engaging Broader Audiences in Foresight | Encouraging various stakeholders, including educational institutions, to participate in future-oriented thinking and discussions. |
| Integration of Speculative Writing in Education | Utilizing speculative narratives in educational settings to stimulate critical thinking about the future among students. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Design Fiction | A foresight method that uses speculative storytelling to explore and imagine alternative futures and societal shifts. |
| Weak Signals Project | An initiative aimed at identifying early developments and phenomena that indicate potential future trends and changes in society. |
| Foresight Methods | Approaches used to anticipate and visualize future developments to aid decision-making and strategic planning. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Evolving operating environments | The rapid transformation of economic, security, and technological landscapes creates uncertainty and necessitates adaptive strategies. |
| Weak signals in foresight | The concept of weak signals highlights early indicators of societal changes that may lead to significant future shifts. |
| Design fiction as foresight tool | Using fictional narratives to explore alternative futures encourages creative thinking about potential changes in society. |
| Privacy and technology impact | The potential loss of privacy in future societies and implications for personal experience and societal norms. |
| Educational approaches to futurism | Integrating foresight tools and speculative thinking into education sparks future-oriented discussions among students. |
| Surprise developments | Unexpected events and changes in various sectors underscore the need for flexible and innovative future strategies. |