The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has raised concerns about the dangers of falling Starlink satellites from SpaceX. The FAA claims that by 2035, 28,000 fragments from these satellites could survive re-entry each year, increasing the risk of them hitting and killing someone on the ground to 61%. The FAA report also highlights the risk to aircraft, with a 0.07% chance of a satellite fragment downing an aircraft each year. However, SpaceX has disputed the FAA’s claims, stating that their satellites are designed to be “demisable” and that the FAA’s analysis is flawed and based on outdated information. SpaceX emphasizes their near-flawless performance and the fact that they have already deorbited 325 satellites since 2020 without any debris being found. While the FAA reviews SpaceX’s response, the Federal Communications Commission supports SpaceX’s position that their satellites are fully demisable. Overall, the debate centers around the safety and potential risks associated with SpaceX’s satellite network.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAA warns of danger of falling Starlink satellites | Awareness and regulation of satellite debris risk | Increased regulation and safety measures in satellite operations | Concern for public safety and avoidance of catastrophe |
| SpaceX disputes FAA’s claims about satellite debris risk | Disagreement between SpaceX and FAA | Increased scrutiny and debate over satellite debris risk assessment | Company defense and protection of business interests |