US intelligence officials have stated that Russia is once again the most active foreign power trying to influence American politics, with the Kremlin preferring Donald Trump over his Democratic rival in the upcoming election. While Russia has not been observed hacking voting machines or registration systems, it is engaged in a comprehensive approach to influence the election, including the presidential race and public opinion. China, on the other hand, appears to be refraining from extensive influence operations, while Iran is described as a “chaos agent” seeking to exploit US political and social tensions. US national security officials have emphasized that there is no evidence of direct interference in this year’s voting or election process. The landscape of foreign influence in US elections is seen as more complex but less intense compared to previous cycles, with Russia identified as the top purveyor of influence operations, while China and Iran have more muted roles.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kremlin prefers Trump again | Continuation of Russia’s preference for Trump | Ongoing Russian influence on US elections | Russia’s perceived benefits from Trump’s policies |
| China refrains from influence ops | China has limited involvement in US politics | China continues to perceive little gain | China’s perception of limited benefits from influencing US |
| Iran exploits US political tensions | Iran seeks chaos and exploitation, not outcome | Iranian interference in US protests | Exploitation of US political and social tensions by Iran |
| Complex and less intense influence ops | Landscape of foreign influence is changing | More nuanced and subdued foreign influence | Evolving tactics of foreign actors in influencing US politics |
| Russian purveyor of influence ops | Russia is the top purveyor of influence ops | Continued Russian influence on US elections | Russia’s use of propaganda and fake content on social platforms |
| China cautious in choosing sides | China hesitant in choosing between US parties | Increased caution in Chinese influence ops | China’s perception of limited benefits from influencing US |