The article explores the impact of AI on society, focusing on the potential loss of jobs, the blurring of reality with generative AI, and the distribution of value in the AI industry. It discusses the rapid pace of technological advancement and highlights the risks AI poses to white-collar jobs. The article also delves into the potential of generative AI to revolutionize entertainment and education, but also raises concerns about misinformation and trust. It concludes by examining the distribution of value in the AI industry, with big tech companies expected to dominate but opportunities for startups to create value at the application layer. Overall, the article presents a nuanced view of AI’s impact on society and the challenges and opportunities it presents.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI’s impact on society | AI disrupting white-collar jobs | AI will replace many jobs, create new ones | Technological advancement and AI capabilities |
| Technology advancement pace | Technological advancement in AI | AI models will continue to improve rapidly | Pace of technological advancement |
| AI’s impact on labor | AI will render many jobs moot | Worker retraining is essential | AI’s ability to perform knowledge work |
| Reality in a world of generative AI | Blurring of fact and fiction | More skepticism and distrust of news | Generative AI’s ability to create realistic content |
| Value distribution in AI | Big companies capturing value | Opportunities for startups to create value | Distribution and specialization in AI |