BP’s Energy Outlook 2023 emphasizes that hydrogen will have a minimal impact on the decarbonisation of light vehicles and building heating but will be crucial for industry and heavy transport. Heat pumps are predicted to largely replace gas boilers, limiting hydrogen’s role in heating. For light vehicles, hydrogen is forecasted to account for 0% of the market by 2050, while medium and heavy vehicles may use hydrogen for 30% of their energy needs. In aviation, hydrogen’s direct use is limited, with sustainable aviation fuel taking precedence. In shipping, hydrogen-derived fuels like ammonia are expected to dominate. Overall, hydrogen is projected to supply about 10% of global energy consumption by 2050, requiring nearly 300 million tonnes of hydrogen annually.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimal Role of Hydrogen in Light Vehicles | Hydrogen’s contribution to light vehicles is projected to be zero by 2035 and 2050. | Shift from hydrogen towards direct electricity use in light vehicles. | Electric vehicles will dominate the light vehicle market, with hydrogen being nearly irrelevant. | Technological advancements in electric vehicle efficiency and infrastructure development. | 5 |
| Hydrogen’s Limited Role in Aviation | Hydrogen is expected to play a limited role in aviation decarbonization. | From reliance on traditional fuels to a focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). | SAF will dominate aviation fuel, with minimal hydrogen-derived solutions. | Need for decarbonization of aviation amidst regulatory and environmental pressures. | 4 |
| Ammonia as a Preferred Hydrogen-Derived Fuel | Ammonia is set to be the leading hydrogen-derived fuel for shipping. | Transition from direct hydrogen usage to ammonia and methanol in maritime fuels. | Ammonia will be a primary fuel source in shipping, despite handling challenges. | Cost efficiency and scalability of ammonia compared to other fuels. | 4 |
| Shift to Heat Pumps in Heating | Heat pumps are replacing gas boilers in residential and commercial buildings. | From natural gas heating to electric heating through efficient heat pumps. | Residential heating will predominantly rely on electric heat pumps, reducing gas dependency. | Energy efficiency and sustainability goals driving electrification of heating systems. | 5 |
| Hydrogen’s Role in Heavy Industry | Hydrogen is projected to supply 17% of energy demand in heavy industry by 2050. | From fossil fuels to low-carbon hydrogen in heavy industrial processes. | Heavy industries will increasingly rely on hydrogen for energy and reducing agents. | Decarbonization efforts and the need for sustainable industrial practices. | 4 |
| Electricity Dominance in Non-Heavy Industries | Electricity is expected to dominate energy use in non-heavy industries by 2050. | Shift from fossil fuel dependence to a majority electricity-based energy mix. | Non-heavy industries will primarily utilize electricity, reducing carbon footprints. | Technological advancements in electrification of industrial processes. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Limited Role of Hydrogen in Decarbonisation | Hydrogen is projected to have a minimal role in decarbonizing light vehicles and residential heating, raising concerns about reliance on alternative energy sources. | 4 |
| Inefficiencies of Hydrogen Use | Hydrogen’s production and use in heating are less efficient than alternatives like heat pumps, potentially leading to higher energy demands and costs. | 4 |
| Dependence on Fossil Fuels for Heavy Vehicles | A significant portion of energy for medium and heavy vehicles will still rely on fossil fuels by 2050, posing challenges for full decarbonisation. | 5 |
| Aviation Sector Limitations | The aviation industry may struggle to adopt hydrogen solutions due to current fleet limitations and technology progress in sustainable aviation fuels. | 4 |
| Safety Challenges of Hydrogen-Derived Fuels in Shipping | Ammonia and methanol, derived from hydrogen, present safety and handling challenges that need to be addressed for widespread shipping use. | 5 |
| Cost Barriers for Alternative Fuels | Adoption of electric and hydrogen-based solutions requires significant cost reductions and infrastructure development, which may hinder progress. | 4 |
| Technological Development Gaps | Emerging technologies for hydrogen applications in industry and transport are still in development, potentially delaying widespread adoption. | 3 |
| Relying on Biofuels in Aviation | An over-reliance on biofuels instead of synthetic fuels derived from hydrogen could limit sustainable progress in aviation decarbonisation. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Electrification of Heating | Development of heat pumps to replace gas boilers, leading to reduced energy demand for heating in buildings. | 5 |
| Hydrogen as a Secondary Fuel | Hydrogen is largely sidelined in light vehicles but plays a significant role in medium and heavy transport and some industrial applications. | 4 |
| Shift to Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) | Focus on biofuels and synthetic fuels for aviation decarbonization rather than direct hydrogen use. | 4 |
| Hydrogen-Derived Fuels in Shipping | Ammonia and methanol emerging as predominant hydrogen-derived fuels in shipping, despite handling and cost challenges. | 3 |
| Direct Electrification in Industry | Increased focus on electrification in non-heavy industries, using technologies like industrial-scale heat pumps. | 4 |
| Cost Reduction and Infrastructure Development | Need for material vehicle cost reductions and development of charging/refueling networks for hydrogen and electric vehicles. | 5 |
| description | relevancy | src |
|---|---|---|
| Efficient systems that displace gas boilers in buildings, reducing energy demand significantly. | 5 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| Hydrogen derived from natural gas with carbon capture and storage, used in heavy transport and industry. | 4 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| Hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources, playing a role in industry and heavy transport. | 4 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| Fuels created from hydrogen and CO2, contributing to aviation’s energy mix by 2050. | 3 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| Technology in development for shipping, using ammonia as a low-cost hydrogen-derived fuel solution. | 4 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| Technologies capable of producing lower temperature heat for non-heavy industries, enhancing electrification. | 4 | 18cfbb0e23ac94c1ae56348a3663c73c |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Limited Role of Hydrogen in Light Vehicles | Hydrogen is projected to have minimal use in light vehicles by 2050, with over 70% using electricity directly. | 5 |
| Shift to Electrification in Heating | The transition to heat pumps in residential and commercial buildings may reduce the role of hydrogen in heating applications. | 4 |
| Hydrogen in Heavy Transport | Hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels are expected to play a significant role in medium and heavy transport by 2050, with a 30% energy share. | 4 |
| Aviation’s Dependence on Sustainable Aviation Fuel | Aviation’s decarbonization relies more on sustainable aviation fuel rather than hydrogen-based solutions, limiting hydrogen’s role. | 4 |
| Hydrogen-derived Fuels in Shipping | The shipping industry is likely to use hydrogen-derived fuels like ammonia and methanol, which presents handling and operational challenges. | 5 |
| Industrial Hydrogen Demand | Heavy industry is projected to consume about 17% of energy from hydrogen, with iron and steel being the largest user. | 4 |
| Need for Cost Reduction in Hydrogen Solutions | Adoption of hydrogen solutions requires significant reductions in vehicle costs and development of refueling networks. | 5 |
| Technological Development of Hydrogen-based Solutions | Emerging technologies are required for ammonia and methanol engines in shipping, indicating ongoing innovation in fuel solutions. | 3 |
| Demand for Clean Hydrogen | Projected demand for green and blue hydrogen could reach almost 300 million tonnes by 2050, indicating a growing market. | 5 |