Toyota, despite expecting record growth this fiscal year, is cutting its EV sales forecast by nearly 40%. The company plans to lean into hybrids instead, to avoid the price competition in the EV market. Toyota’s Q2 2024 fiscal results showed growth across the board with sales reaching 4.7 million, up 114% from last year. However, HEVs accounted for the majority of sales at 1.7 million compared to only 59,000 battery electric vehicles. The lower EV sales forecast is due to the decline in the Chinese market and the intensifying EV price war in China. Toyota is focusing on its heritage of HEVs and expects to sell about 3.6 million HEVs this fiscal year.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota cuts EV sales forecast | Decrease in EV sales forecast | EV sales will be lower | Intensifying price competition in the EV market |
| Toyota focuses on hybrids to avoid competition | Shifting focus from EVs to hybrids | More emphasis on hybrid vehicles | Avoiding price competition in the EV market |
| Toyota expects record growth | Expected high sales growth | Increased sales and profitability | Strong market demand and product development |
| Toyota’s HEVs account for higher sales | Increase in HEV sales | Higher sales of hybrid vehicles | Customer preference for hybrid vehicles |
| Global automakers cut EV sales forecasts | Decrease in EV sales forecast | Slower growth in EV sales | Intensifying competition and market conditions |
| Toyota invests in EV battery plant | Increase in EV battery production | Expanded battery production capacity | Meeting increasing demand for EVs |
| EV market adoption rate will continue to climb | Increase in EV adoption rate | Increase in EV market share | Technological advancements and changing consumer preferences |