Meta has developed an AI called Cicero that can beat humans at the strategy game Diplomacy, which involves forming alliances and negotiating tactics. Cicero ranked in the top 10% across 40 online games and came first in an eight-game tournament. It uses a combination of reinforcement learning and a large language model to make moves and negotiate with other players. Although not perfect, Cicero’s ability to collaborate and find compromises makes it valuable for complex problems that require compromise. This development is significant as it moves AI towards handling real-world problems that often lack straightforward resolutions.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta’s game-playing AI can make alliances | AI that can handle complex problems | AI that can assist with complex problems | The desire for AI to assist with problem-solving |
| Meta’s game-playing AI can break alliances | AI that can handle complex problems | AI that can assist with complex problems | The desire for AI to assist with problem-solving |
| Meta’s AI beats humans at Diplomacy | AI mastering complex negotiations in games | AI capable of negotiating in real-life | Advancements in AI algorithms and models |
| Cicero ranked in top 10% against humans | AI surpassing human performance in Diplomacy | More advanced AI gaming capabilities | Advancements in AI algorithms and models |
| Cicero wins 8-game tournament with 21 players | AI outperforming humans in Diplomacy | AI dominating Diplomacy competitions | Advancements in AI algorithms and models |
| Cicero models player behavior in Diplomacy | AI predicting player actions in complex game | AI predicting human behavior | Advancements in AI algorithms and models |
| Meta combines reinforcement learning and language models | AI development using multiple AI techniques | More sophisticated AI models | Advancements in AI algorithms and models |
| Cicero still makes errors in its messages | AI still has room for improvement | More accurate and strategic AI messages | Further advancements in AI algorithms |
| Cicero is chosen as a collaborator by humans | AI seen as a valuable partner in Diplomacy | AI seen as a valuable collaborator | Recognition of AI’s potential in problem-solving |
| AI’s potential in complex problem-solving | AI assisting in various complex problems | AI widely used in problem-solving | Recognition of AI’s capabilities and benefits |
| AI’s potential in complex negotiations | AI assisting in negotiations in real-life | AI widely used in negotiations | Recognition of AI’s capabilities and benefits |
| AI’s potential in trade-offs and workarounds | AI assisting in finding compromises | AI widely used in problem-solving | Recognition of AI’s capabilities and benefits |
| AI’s potential in planning and negotiating | AI assisting in planning and contract negotiation | AI widely used in planning and negotiation | Recognition of AI’s capabilities and benefits |