This article highlights the need to make transport fairer and more sustainable in the face of multiple crises, including the environmental crisis, wealth inequality, and productivity crisis. The author emphasizes the importance of looking for seeds of change or weak signals to shape a different view of what transport should be. Some of these seeds include electrification, promoting lower speeds, reducing the size of vehicles, ensuring better access for excluded users, and implementing lower-cost or free transport options. The article also delves into Kurt Vonnegut’s theory of story diagrams, which suggests that stories follow a small number of patterns. The author draws parallels between these storytelling patterns and the different shapes of transport-related changes that need to be made. The themes that emerge from this article are transportation, sustainability, and storytelling.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Making transport fairer and more sustainable | Shift towards electrification, slower cars, smaller cars, better access, and lower cost | Increased adoption of electric vehicles, reduced speed limits, banning of SUVs, improved access to transportation, and more cities offering free public transport | Environmental and social concerns, desire for equality and accessibility |
| Kurt Vonnegut’s story diagrams | Exploration of storytelling patterns and shapes | Deeper understanding of storytelling structures and their relationship to human experience | Curiosity and exploration of narrative structures |