Artificial intelligence, specifically OpenAI’s GPT-4, is rapidly advancing and has various applications. GPT-4, a generative pre-trained transformer, is capable of determining the most likely words to follow from given inputs. It has been trained on a massive amount of data and can discern intricate rules about word and image combinations. GPT-4 is a general technology that can power chatbots and be applied to multiple purposes. It is improving at a fast pace, raising questions about the safety of human jobs. There are differences between GPT-4 and ChatGPT, with the former being a more powerful version and having broader applications.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI advancements | Technological | Increased automation, transformed industries | Desire for increased productivity and efficiency |
| GPT-4 capabilities | Technological | More versatile, powerful, and adaptable AI model | Advancements in training data and analysis |
| Impact on jobs | Economic | Increased automation, reduced need for human workers | Desire for cost-effectiveness and efficiency |
| AI replacing journalists | Technological | AI-generated content, faster and wider range of topics | Efficiency and accuracy in content creation |
| Uncertainty and disorientation | Societal | Heightened uncertainty about the future | Rapid technological advancements and societal changes |
| Potential for economic utopia | Economic | Exponential acceleration in technological innovation | Positive feedback loop between technological advancements and AI capabilities |
| Concerns about societal stability | Societal | Social destabilization and potential catastrophes | AI’s potential to cause harm and unintended consequences |
| Discontents of low growth | Economic | Potential for higher economic growth rates | AI’s potential to transform economic productivity |
| Potential loss of value in intellectual skills | Economic | Decreased economic value of intellectual skills | Automation of “laptop jobs” and increased value of manual skills |
| Reimagining social worth and material comfort | Societal | Shift towards a future not tied to labor market value | Desire for a more equitable and inclusive society |