The looming natural gas shortages in the European Union have caused countries like Germany to scramble for solutions and prioritize solidarity among member states. Germany’s Economics Minister, Robert Habeck, has been traveling to different countries to prepare solidarity agreements in case Russia halts gas supplies to the EU. The hope is to avoid a repeat of the lack of solidarity seen during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. The gas crisis has the potential to have severe repercussions, with Germany being hit the hardest due to its high natural gas consumption and role as a transit country. The EU is working on coordinating emergency plans and sharing information to prevent disruptions in energy supply. However, there are concerns about the lack of bilateral solidarity agreements and the readiness of countries to support each other in case of an emergency. The European Commission will present its recommendations on dealing with the gas shortage, but member states will have to decide how to manage the situation themselves. The issue of joint gas purchases has been blocked by Germany, creating divisions within the EU. The European gas network may face challenges in meeting the demand for gas if there is a prolonged Russian embargo. An upgrade of the gas grid and addressing weak points in the flow of gas between countries is recommended. The EU hopes that the lessons learned from the coronavirus crisis will lead to greater solidarity among member states. The crisis has the potential to either break apart the EU or strengthen its unity.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Looming Natural Gas Shortages | Potential shift in European energy supplies | Upgraded gas infrastructure, increased cooperation | Ensuring energy security and avoiding division |
| Solidarity Agreements Between EU Countries | Increased cooperation among EU member states | Stronger European solidarity and unity | Avoiding division and ensuring energy security |
| Potential Stress Test for European Solidarity | Test of solidarity within the EU | Increased cooperation and support among EU countries | Avoiding division and ensuring energy security |
| Potential Recession and High Prices | Economic repercussions due to gas shortage | Negative economic impacts and higher prices | Ensuring energy security and avoiding economic instability |
| Lack of Bilateral Solidarity Agreements | Risk of complicated negotiations in emergency situations | Difficulties in providing mutual support in emergencies | Lack of coordination and preparedness |
| European Commission’s Role in Coordinating Emergency Plans | Coordinated emergency plans to prevent disruptions | Better coordination and prevention of production shutdown | Ensuring energy security and stability |
| Resentment and Lack of Enthusiasm for European Solidarity | Resentment towards Germany’s energy policies and actions | Limited willingness to help Germany | Perceived national interests and past actions |
| Resistance to Joint Gas Purchases | Blockage of joint gas purchases among EU member states | Continued individual gas purchases and competition | Concerns about gas supply allocation and competition |
| Uncertain Capability of European Gas Grid | Need for technical upgrades to meet changing gas flows | Upgraded gas infrastructure and improved flow management | Ensuring energy security and efficient distribution |
| Potential impact on Ukraine’s gas supply | Impact on non-EU member states and potential humanitarian crisis | Humanitarian crisis and strain on EU unity | Balancing energy security and humanitarian concerns |