This text discusses the impact of AI on skill distribution and performance in various fields. It emphasizes that AI acts as a leveler, elevating the skills of lower performers to or above the average level. The text presents evidence from studies showing the positive effects of AI on professional tasks such as writing, idea generation, and analysis. It also highlights that AI can help lower-performing individuals catch up with higher performers. Additionally, the text explores the potential for AI to act as an escalator, increasing the skills of everyone, and as a kingmaker, benefiting individuals with a natural aptitude for working with AI. The author argues that while AI may reshape work and increase productivity, it is unlikely to replace skilled workers entirely. The text concludes by emphasizing the need for thoughtful consideration of the implications of AI on work and society.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI elevates skills of lowest performers | From low to average performance | Skill gaps among humans reduced | Desire to find, train, and retain top workers |
| AI acts as a skills leveler for professional work | Raises everyone to a minimum level of performance | More productive and less-skilled workers | Automation and increased productivity |
| AI can help top performers become more skilled | From high to higher skill levels | Increased skills for all workers | Improvement of AI systems and training |
| AI can benefit certain individuals more than others | Some individuals gain more from AI than others | Increased productivity and success for top performers | Natural talent and expertise in working with AI |
| AI may change the nature of work and entrepreneurship | Expansion of entrepreneurship and personalized cofounders for entrepreneurs | Potential for increased entrepreneurship and creativity | Availability of AI tools and technology |
| Dependency on AI may lead to laziness and less creativity | Increased dependence on AI for work tasks | Decreased creativity and individuality in work | Convenience and ease of AI tools |
| AI can be both an elevator and a kingmaker | Elevates skills for all and creates AI experts | Improved performance for all workers and recognition for AI experts | Combination of AI capabilities and human expertise |