This text discusses the concept of technological improvement and the significance of thresholds in determining the adoption and dominance of new technologies. The author focuses on the rapid development of AI and its role as a general-purpose technology with wide-ranging effects. They highlight the progression of AI capabilities in areas such as image generation and video production, as well as its potential for assisting professional filmmakers. The text also explores the importance of ease of access and transparency for AI to cross thresholds of use. Additionally, the author emphasizes the subjective nature of identifying when an AI model crosses a threshold of understanding and suggests keeping an “impossibility list” to track the tasks that AI can almost accomplish. The concluding idea is that while the steady improvement in AI is noteworthy, the key factor is the crossing of thresholds in AI capabilities.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thresholds in technology improve over time | Gradual to sudden improvements | AI crosses thresholds, rapidly changing our lives | Improvement in AI capabilities and technological progress |
| AI becomes more capable in specific tasks | Irregular development of LLMs | AI becomes more accurate and useful in specific tasks | Improvement in AI algorithms and training |
| AI reaches a threshold in image and video generation | Progression from poor to realistic | AI generates high-quality images and videos | Improvement in AI models and image/video generation |
| AI support tools reach thresholds of ease and accuracy | Small changes improve user experience | AI tools become easier to access and more transparent | Improvement in user interface and AI models |
| AI models cross thresholds in understanding language | Gradual improvement in AI models | AI models develop a better understanding of language | Improvement in AI language models and contextual clues |
| Thresholds in AI capability shape future developments | Incremental improvements in AI ability | AI technology continues to improve and hit limits | Ongoing progress in AI technology and human intelligence |