Futures

Bangladesh’s Disinformation Campaign: The Role of AI and Deep Fakes in Elections, (from page 20230114.)

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Themes

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Summary

An investigative report by the Financial Times reveals that pro-government news outlets in Bangladesh are using cheap AI tools to create deep fake videos for disinformation against the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the U.S. The report highlights past incidents of coordinated disinformation campaigns by the government and its affiliates, including the removal of fake accounts from Facebook. As the January 2024 elections approach, the BNP is boycotting due to fears of unfair elections. With Bangladesh ranked low in press freedom and a history of suppressing dissent, the ruling Awami League is reportedly promoting disinformation as a means to control the narrative. The situation is exacerbated by geopolitical tensions with the U.S., which has faced disinformation attacks following sanctions against Bangladeshi officials. The rise of AI-generated disinformation poses a significant challenge for the future of free speech in the country.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
AI-Driven Disinformation Pro-government outlets in Bangladesh use AI tools for creating deep fake videos. Shift from traditional disinformation tactics to advanced AI-generated content. In 10 years, AI-generated disinformation may dominate political narratives globally. The increasing accessibility of AI technologies for creating convincing fake content. 4
Emerging Disinformation Economy Collaboration between government agencies and tech entrepreneurs to monetize disinformation efforts. Transition from political disinformation as a tactic to a revenue-generating industry. In 10 years, disinformation might become a recognized economic sector with job roles. The financial incentives driving individuals and groups to engage in disinformation. 5
Declining Media Freedom Bangladesh’s low rank in press freedom metrics reflects a growing suppression of independent journalism. Shift from a relatively free press to a highly controlled media environment. In 10 years, independent journalism may be severely restricted or exist only underground. Government policies aimed at controlling narratives and suppressing dissent. 5
Youth Involvement in Disinformation Young tech entrepreneurs are involved in promoting disinformation for income. Shift from youth engagement in positive tech initiatives to involvement in disinformation campaigns. In 10 years, youth may see disinformation as a legitimate career path in tech. The allure of quick financial gains from disinformation activities. 4
Geopolitical Disinformation Trends Disinformation campaigns in Bangladesh target foreign governments like the U.S. in response to sanctions. Change from localized political disinformation to broader geopolitical narratives. In 10 years, global disinformation may increasingly reflect nationalistic and anti-foreign sentiments. Rising nationalism and anti-Western sentiment in response to foreign policies. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Deep Fake Disinformation Cheap AI tools are being used to create deep fake videos that spread political disinformation, particularly against opposition parties. 5
Authoritarian Control of Media The ruling government is allegedly controlling media narratives and promoting disinformation to stifle dissent and maintain power. 5
Tampering with Free Elections The use of disinformation and suppression tactics raises concerns over the integrity of upcoming elections in Bangladesh. 5
Erosion of Public Trust Widespread disinformation campaigns may lead to a significant erosion of public trust in media and political institutions. 4
Exploitation of Digital Security Laws Draconian laws like the Digital Security Act are being exploited to silence critics and control the narrative online. 5
Geopolitical Manipulation Disinformation is used strategically against foreign governments, like the U.S., reflecting broader geopolitical tensions. 4
Monetization of Disinformation Disinformation has become a lucrative industry for government-affiliated groups, which could incentivize further misinformation efforts. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
AI-generated disinformation Utilization of cheap AI tools to create deep fake videos for political disinformation campaigns. 5
Coordinated disinformation campaigns Systematic efforts by government and affiliates to disseminate false narratives through fake experts and inauthentic media. 5
Economic incentives for disinformation Emergence of financial motivations for individuals and groups to promote disinformation and engage in hacking activities. 4
Political trolling as a business Trolling and disinformation promotion have become lucrative business ventures in the context of political discourse. 4
Geopolitical disinformation targeting Response to international sanctions and criticisms through targeted disinformation campaigns against foreign governments. 4
Public apathy towards political discourse Growing disconnection between government actions and public opinion, leading to continued disinformation despite lack of public support. 4
Regulatory challenges in digital media Weak enforcement of media regulations resulting in rampant disinformation and reduced press freedom. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools Affordable AI tools are being used to create deep fake videos to spread disinformation. 5
Deep Fake Technology Technology that generates realistic fake videos, often used maliciously to manipulate public perception. 5
Disinformation Campaigns Coordinated efforts utilizing technology and social media to spread false information, particularly in political contexts. 4
Fact-Checking Technologies Technologies and methodologies used to verify information and combat disinformation, increasingly relevant in political discourse. 4
Social Media Monitoring Tools Tools developed for monitoring and analyzing social media content to identify and counteract disinformation. 4
Hacking Tools for Social Media Techniques and tools used to disrupt or manipulate social media accounts, particularly of political opponents. 3

Issues

name description relevancy
AI-Generated Disinformation Pro-government entities in Bangladesh are utilizing AI tools to create deep fake videos to spread disinformation, particularly against political opponents. 5
Political Manipulation of Media The systematic use of disinformation by the Bangladeshi government to influence public perception and suppress opposition voices. 5
Emerging Disinformation Economy Disinformation has become a profitable industry in Bangladesh, involving various actors from government agencies to tech entrepreneurs. 4
Impact of Authoritarianism on Information Integrity The correlation between authoritarian regimes and the proliferation of disinformation, suggesting a growing trend in political discourse. 4
Threats to Free Speech and Press Freedom Continued decline in media freedom and expression in Bangladesh, highlighted by low rankings in global press freedom indices. 5
Geopolitical Disinformation Campaigns Increasing use of disinformation as a tool for geopolitical maneuvering, particularly in response to international sanctions and criticism. 4
Role of Social Media Companies The need for social media platforms to enhance measures against disinformation, especially with the rise of AI-generated content. 5