Apple’s Next Big Thing (NBT) is yet to be identified, as the company lacks a revolutionary product like the iPhone. The potential candidates for NBT include the Apple Car, Augmented Reality devices, and healthcare market forays, but none of them seem to have the same growth potential as the iPhone. The company’s focus is shifting towards improving existing devices and relying on its array of services to drive revenue and customer loyalty. Apple’s business model is evolving to prioritize the integration of devices and services, with services becoming a major source of growth and revenue. The company recognizes the importance of its services business and its potential for profitability. As a result, Apple is expected to undergo significant changes in its culture, reward system, and overall approach to business. While the market for new devices may be cooling, Apple’s shift towards services and potential ventures like an Apple Bank or Apple Search Engine could lead to new opportunities for growth and profit.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple’s focus and culture will change | Change in company’s focus and culture | Apple will rely more on Services | Lack of a Next Big Thing |
| Apple’s revenue comes from iPhone | Shift from hardware to services revenue | Apple’s revenue will come from services | Services business potential |
| Apple’s lack of breakthrough products | Incremental mode | Apple will focus on improving devices | Saturation of smartphone market |
| Apple’s business model and identity change | Shift from personal computers to devices | Apple’s focus on devices and services | Growth potential of services |
| Apple’s emphasis on services revenue | Services as a growth engine | Apple’s revenue will come from services | Stabilizer and growth engine |
| Apple’s potential for new business ventures | Exploration of new business opportunities | Apple may enter new industries | Lack of a Next Big Thing |
| Apple’s potential for advertising growth | Growth of advertising revenue | Apple’s advertising business will expand | Privacy protection and market demand |