The text discusses the shift from World War II and the Cold War to the current era, which is centered around computing power and the rivalry between the U.S. and China. It highlights the importance of semiconductors in military applications, as well as the challenges faced by Russia in accessing advanced chips. The interview also mentions the Chips Plus Act and the potential impact of onshoring chip production on the U.S.-China conflict. The author argues against the assumption that economic integration guarantees peace and highlights historical examples of economically integrated countries engaging in conflict.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| The next era is all about computing power | Shift from steel and aluminum to computing power in defining global rivalries | Greater reliance on advanced semiconductors in military systems and battlefield integration | Advancements in technology and the need for computing power in autonomous systems |
| Russia’s limited access to semiconductors | Russia’s struggle to procure semiconductors for military systems | Increased domestic chipmaking capacity and improved systems integration capabilities | Limited advancement and capacity in domestic chipmaking, reliance on chips from unfriendly countries |
| Chips Plus Act to increase leading-edge chipmaking capacity | Increase in chipmaking capacity in the U.S. through government funding | Construction of new facilities and increased chipmaking capabilities in the U.S. | Funding from the Chips Act and expectations of increased chipmaking capacity |
| Onshoring chip production and the potential for conflict | Onshoring chip production may increase the chances of conflict | Economic integration does not guarantee a peaceful outcome, political goals and zero COVID have become priorities | Shift in focus from maximizing GDP to political goals and public health concerns |