In this text, the author discusses the future of software development and the impact of large language models (LLMs) on automating tasks. Initially, LLMs were limited in their ability to generate accurate results but they are progressively improving. The author suggests the need for frameworks and analogies to guide our thinking about the future. The discussion revolves around the capabilities of AI in software development and how it can assist developers at different levels of automation. The author also explores the implications of AI coders and outsourced software development. Moreover, the text emphasizes the importance of software developers in handling complex business logic and formal definition of business logic. Overall, the author believes that the role of software developers will continue to exist, albeit with changes in nature of work and tools used.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Language Models (LLMs) in software dev | Shift from human-driven to AI-assisted dev | AI fully competent in software development tasks | Improvement in AI capabilities and creativity |
| Classification of AI-driven software development | Level-based automation | Gradual increase in automation capabilities | Desire for clear understanding and collaboration |
| Impact of AI coders on organizational structure | Outsourced software development | In-house oversight of AI coders | Alignment with long-term goals |
| Software development as modeling complexity | Perception of software dev as coding only | Recognition of the complexity of software dev | Need for effective management of complexity |
| Market size of software development | Expanding market for solving business problems | Continuous demand for software development | Scope of business problem solving |
| Importance of formal business logic definition | Need for unambiguous business logic | Formal definition of business logic | Ensuring accuracy and consistency in logic |
| Future role of Software Developers | Evolution of work nature and tools | Continued need for software developers | Adapting to changing technologies and demands |