The text discusses the resurgence of interest in futures thinking and foresight work. It highlights the challenges faced by those new to the field and emphasizes the importance of using foresight effectively. The text suggests that project scoping is crucial in determining the impact and success of foresight projects. It distinguishes between content-centric projects, which focus on creating and sharing foresight content, and capacity-centric projects, which aim to build organizations’ ability to utilize foresight. The text concludes by emphasizing the value of well-scoped projects in building confidence and fostering a futures thinking mindset.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance for futures thinking | Increase in interest and awareness | More widespread and genuine interest in futures and foresight work | Volatility and uncertainty in the past years |
| Challenge in using foresight effectively | Need for better understanding | Improved understanding of when and how to use foresight | Desire to avoid mismatches and skepticism about futures thinking |
| Importance of scoping projects realistically | Focus on project impact | Increased focus on the actual impact of foresight projects | Setting realistic expectations and maximizing impact |
| Differentiating between content and capacity | Distinguishing project types | Clear differentiation between projects centered around content or capacity | Determining if the project focuses on content creation or capacity building |
| Centering content in foresight projects | Emphasis on crafting forecasts | More effort on creating plausible and provocative forecasts | Ensuring the foresight can withstand scrutiny and skepticism |
| Centering capacity in foresight projects | Focus on utilizing foresight insights | Building or tapping into an organization’s capacity to utilize foresight for transformative action | Helping stakeholders challenge assumptions and make decisions with long-term perspective |
| Importance of scoping a well-defined project | Enhancing project success | Increased likelihood of project success and building confidence in futures thinking | Building goodwill and confidence in the organization for futures thinking |
| Building a futures thinking mindset takes time | Need for patience and persistence | Continued effort and time to develop a futures thinking mindset | Recognizing that it is a gradual process and cannot be rushed |