A study suggests that dictators often lie about their countries’ economic growth. Satellite data on the brightness of countries’ lights at night, which serves as a proxy for GDP, reveals that dictators greatly overstate their economic growth. The data shows irregularities in dictatorships’ reported GDP figures, particularly in areas that are easy to manipulate, such as investment and government spending. These irregularities become more prevalent as countries move towards or away from dictatorship. The study also found that cumulative GDP growth in countries categorized as “not free” was nearly cut in half when compared to official figures. This manipulation of GDP data by dictators is driven by the fear of questioning the official line and the need to demonstrate strong economic performance.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Study suggests dictators lie about growth | Overstating economic growth | Increased skepticism and scrutiny | Maintain power and avoid appearing incompetent |
| Satellite data reveals deception | Autocrats overstate GDP growth | More accurate reporting of GDP growth | Fear of consequences and desire for positive perception |
| Dictators’ GDP growth is overstated | Discrepancy between reported and actual | Greater transparency and accountability | Maintain legitimacy and avoid negative perceptions |
| Manipulation of data is likely cause | Irregularities in investment and spending | Strong incentive to report healthy growth | Avoid questioning and maintain appearance of competence |
| Cumulative GDP growth is nearly halved | Decreased reported growth in dictatorships | Lower reported economic performance | Pressure to maintain positive perception and avoid criticism |
| Outsiders should be skeptical of reported data | Increased skepticism and scrutiny | Increased reliance on alternative measures | Lack of trust and suspicion of deception |