Futures

Future Shocks 2023: Analyzing Risks and Resilience in the EU’s Response to Global Challenges, (from page 20231203.)

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Summary

The ‘Future Shocks 2023’ report by the European Parliament reviews global risks, emphasizing the EU’s resilience during crises like COVID-19 and the Ukraine war. This second edition identifies 15 potential risks over the next decade—including geopolitical tensions, climate change, health issues, economic instability, and threats to democracy—and outlines 10 policy responses to enhance governance and capabilities within the EU. It draws on existing recommendations from European Parliament resolutions and insights from various stakeholders, aiming to provide objective information and foster collaborative solutions to address these challenges effectively.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Monitoring Future Shocks The European Parliament’s ongoing surveillance of global risks post-coronavirus and during the Ukraine war. From reactive to proactive monitoring of global risks by the EU. EU will have established a robust framework for continuous global risk assessment and management. The need for resilience against crises like pandemics and geopolitical conflicts. 4
Decline in Mental Health in Youth Reported decline in mental health and societal well-being among young Europeans. From general awareness of youth mental health issues to urgent policy focus on mental health solutions. Enhanced mental health support systems and preventive measures in educational institutions across Europe. Increasing recognition of mental health as a critical public health issue. 5
Biodiversity Loss Concerns Rising awareness and documented risks of biodiversity loss or collapse. From neglecting environmental issues to prioritizing biodiversity in policy-making. Significant policy shifts leading to stronger biodiversity preservation efforts and initiatives. Growing environmental advocacy and scientific evidence highlighting biodiversity’s importance. 5
Strategic Threats to Democracy Emerging threats to the democratic information sphere amid global tensions. From stable democratic information systems to vulnerable and polarized information landscapes. A transformed media landscape with new regulatory frameworks to protect democratic discourse. The rise of misinformation and geopolitical influence on democratic processes. 4
Forging New Partnerships Efforts to build new partnerships in a polarized global environment. From traditional alliances to more flexible and adaptive international partnerships. A redefined international cooperation model focusing on shared challenges and interests. The need for collaboration to address global challenges like climate change and security. 4
De-risking Supply Chains Increased focus on de-risking critical supply chains in Europe. From reliance on global supply chains to localized and diversified supply strategies. A more resilient European economy with diversified supply chains minimizing vulnerabilities. Recent global disruptions highlighting the fragility of existing supply chains. 5

Concerns

name description relevancy
Decline in Mental Health Increased mental health issues among young Europeans may affect societal well-being and future productivity. 5
Collapse of the Internet Potential disruptions to Internet services can impact communication, economy, and information dissemination. 4
Biodiversity Loss Continued loss of biodiversity may lead to ecosystem collapse, affecting food security and environmental stability. 5
Threats to Democratic Information Sphere Strategic threats could undermine public trust in information, impacting democratic processes. 4
Geopolitical Instability Rise of tensions and conflicts could disrupt global alliances and economic stability. 5
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities De-risking critical supply chains is necessary to prevent economic fallout from global disruptions. 4
Polarization in Global Partnerships Increased polarization may hinder effective international collaborations and responses to global challenges. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Monitoring Global Risks The European Parliament actively monitors and analyzes global risks, responding to crises with a focus on resilience and capabilities. 5
Protest Movements There is an increase in societal protests, reflecting public response to political and social challenges. 4
Mental Health Awareness Growing concerns over mental health and societal well-being, particularly among young Europeans, indicating a shift in public health priorities. 4
Digital Vulnerability Recognition of the potential collapse of the Internet and its implications for society, highlighting concerns over digital infrastructure. 4
Biodiversity Concerns Heightened awareness and acknowledgment of biodiversity loss as a significant risk, prompting calls for environmental action. 5
Democratic Information Integrity Emerging threats to the democratic information sphere, indicating challenges in maintaining a healthy public discourse. 4
New Global Partnerships A trend towards forging new partnerships in a polarized world to address global challenges collectively. 4
Supply Chain De-risking Efforts to de-risk critical supply chains in Europe, reflecting a proactive approach to economic security. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Monitoring Global Risks The EU’s initiative to assess and respond to geopolitical, climate, health, economic, and democratic risks. 4
Resilience Building in Governance Developing capabilities within EU institutions to respond effectively to major shocks. 5
Digital Infrastructure Security Addressing potential collapse of the Internet through enhanced security measures and policies. 4
Biodiversity Protection Technologies Implementing solutions to mitigate biodiversity loss amid environmental challenges. 4
Mental Health Support Systems Innovative approaches to address the decline of mental health in young populations. 4
Supply Chain Resilience Strategies to de-risk critical supply chains in a globalized economy. 5
Democratic Information Protection Defending the democratic information sphere from strategic and systemic threats. 4
Partnership Development in Geopolitics Creating new partnerships to navigate a polarized global landscape. 4

Issues

name description relevancy
Decline in Mental Health A significant downturn in mental health and societal well-being among young Europeans, raising concerns for future societal stability. 5
Collapse of the Internet Potential risks associated with the collapse of the Internet, affecting communication, economy, and social structures. 5
Biodiversity Loss or Collapse Threats to biodiversity that may lead to ecological imbalances and impact human livelihoods and health. 5
Threats to Democratic Information Sphere Strategic and systemic threats to the democratic information ecosystem, jeopardizing informed citizenry and governance. 5
Polarisation and New Partnerships The need for forging new partnerships in a world increasingly marked by political and social polarisation. 4
De-risking Supply Chains Efforts to de-risk Europe’s critical global supply chains in response to geopolitical tensions and vulnerabilities. 4