The European Parliament has been monitoring future shocks since the coronavirus crisis and continues to do so during Russia’s war on Ukraine. The ‘Future Shocks’ series reviews global risks and focuses on specific risks and the EU system’s capabilities and resilience. It aims to provide up-to-date and authoritative information based on risk literature. The 2023 edition highlights 15 risks in geopolitics, climate change, health, economics, and democracy, and offers 10 policy responses to enhance governance capacity within the EU. The document includes authors from various backgrounds who contribute to the analysis of future shocks.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Future Shocks 2023 | Monitoring and reviewing risks | More proactive and adaptable response | Increasing global risks and challenges |
| Decline in mental health and societal well-being in young Europeans | Deterioration of mental health | Increased focus on mental health support | Societal pressures and changing lifestyles |
| Collapse of the Internet | Disruption of internet infrastructure | Development of alternative communication systems | Growing cybersecurity threats and technological vulnerabilities |
| Biodiversity loss or collapse | Degradation of global biodiversity | Implementation of conservation measures | Growing awareness of environmental impacts and ecological concerns |
| Strategic and systemic threats to the democratic information sphere | Challenges to democratic information flow | Strengthening of governance and transparency | Rising concerns about disinformation and fake news |
| Forging new partnerships in a polarised world | Creation of partnerships amidst global polarization | Promotion of collaboration and diplomatic efforts | Increasing geopolitical tensions and conflicts |
| De-risking Europe’s global critical supply chains | Reducing dependence on vulnerable supply chains | Development of localized and diversified supply networks | Geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain disruptions |