Futures

China’s Disinformation Campaign in Taiwan Ahead of Presidential Elections, (from page 20231010.)

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Summary

China is intensifying its disinformation campaign in Taiwan ahead of the presidential elections, aiming to convince voters that the United States is their primary threat. A false report suggested America asked Taiwan to produce biological weapons, which was debunked but gained traction in Taiwanese media. This narrative, referred to as ‘US scepticism,’ has infiltrated public discourse, leading to fears of American intentions and framing the election as a choice between war with China and peace. Despite efforts to combat disinformation, including improved media literacy and fact-checking, its impact remains significant. Many Taiwanese remain wary of China despite the disinformation, with surveys indicating a higher level of trust in the US over China. Analysts warn that the spread of such narratives could influence voter decisions in the upcoming election.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Normalization of Disinformation Disinformation in Taiwan is becoming a daily occurrence rather than an election-season anomaly. Shift from disinformation being seasonal to a constant presence in Taiwanese society. Disinformation could become an accepted aspect of Taiwan’s political and social landscape. Increased political tensions and external influence are driving the normalization of disinformation. 4
Local Collaborators in Disinformation Many Taiwanese are believed to be collaborating with Chinese actors to spread disinformation. Growing involvement of local individuals in disseminating foreign disinformation narratives. Local actors may increasingly act as conduits for foreign influence, complicating political discourse. Economic incentives and political affiliations may motivate local collaboration in disinformation efforts. 5
US-Scepticism Narrative The narrative portraying the US as Taiwan’s greatest threat is gaining traction. A shift from viewing China as the main threat to viewing the US as a potential adversary. Political alignment in Taiwan could shift towards greater skepticism of US involvement and support. Chinese efforts to exploit historical fears and create distrust in US relations with Taiwan. 5
Media Literacy Initiatives Taiwan is attempting to improve media literacy to combat disinformation. From passive media consumption to an active effort to educate citizens about media reliability. A more informed electorate may emerge, reducing the effectiveness of disinformation campaigns. The need to protect democracy and informed decision-making in the face of external threats. 3
AI and Disinformation The rise of artificial intelligence is anticipated to accelerate disinformation spread. From traditional disinformation methods to advanced AI-driven techniques for spreading falsehoods. AI may enable even more sophisticated and widespread disinformation campaigns. Technological advancements in AI and social media are facilitating faster disinformation dissemination. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Disinformation Proliferation The spread of false narratives in Taiwan, particularly regarding US-China relations, threatens to manipulate public perception and influence election outcomes. 5
Election Integrity Risk Manipulation through disinformation could distort the democratic process in Taiwan’s elections, leading to outcomes that may not reflect the true will of the voters. 5
Influence of Foreign State Actors China’s extensive efforts to disseminate disinformation raise concerns about foreign influence over domestic affairs and sovereignty in Taiwan. 4
Media Literacy Challenges Taiwan’s struggle to counter disinformation highlights a potential gap in media literacy among the population, making them susceptible to false narratives. 4
Local Collaborators’ Motivation The involvement of local Taiwanese actors in spreading disinformation raises ethical concerns about the motivations behind such actions and the integrity of the media. 4
Censorship vs. Free Press Government measures against disinformation risk being perceived as censorship, creating tension between safeguarding information integrity and maintaining press freedom. 4
AI-Enhanced Disinformation The potential for artificial intelligence to exacerbate the disinformation problem poses a growing risk to public discourse in Taiwan and beyond. 4
Public Trust Erosion The spread of disinformation may lead to a decrease in public trust in media and institutions, further complicating efforts to address misinformation. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Disinformation Normalization The normalization of disinformation as a daily occurrence in Taiwan, influencing public perception and behavior. 5
Local Collaboration in Disinformation Taiwanese individuals or groups acting as local collaborators, amplifying Chinese disinformation narratives for personal or financial gain. 4
Fear Exploitation Exploitation of Taiwanese fears of abandonment and historical grievances by Chinese entities to spread disinformation. 5
Rapid Information Spread The quick transition of disinformation from social media platforms like Douyin to mainstream Taiwanese media. 4
Media Literacy Efforts Government initiatives to improve media literacy as a response to increasing disinformation challenges. 3
AI in Disinformation The anticipated acceleration of disinformation spread through the use of artificial intelligence tools. 4
Public Distrust in Foreign Influence Growing skepticism among Taiwanese voters regarding the origins of disinformation, with less awareness of foreign involvement. 4
Political Polarization and Disinformation The intersection of political polarization in Taiwan with the narratives pushed by Chinese disinformation efforts. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Disinformation Campaigns Systematic efforts to spread false information, particularly through digital platforms like social media, targeting political narratives. 5
Media Literacy Initiatives Programs aimed at improving public understanding of media, enhancing critical thinking regarding news and information sources. 4
Artificial Intelligence in Propaganda Utilization of AI technologies to create and disseminate disinformation at scale, making it harder to combat. 5
Fact-Checking Organizations Independent entities that verify claims made in the media and public discourse, crucial for countering misinformation. 4
Social Media Monitoring Tools Technologies designed to detect and analyze disinformation campaigns across social media platforms. 4

Issues

name description relevancy
Chinese Disinformation Campaigns China’s ongoing disinformation efforts in Taiwan are shaping public perception and electoral outcomes, raising concerns about democratic integrity. 5
Impact of Social Media on Democracy The rapid spread of disinformation via social media platforms complicates the fight against false narratives during elections. 4
Local Collaborators in Disinformation The involvement of Taiwanese individuals in spreading Chinese disinformation highlights a complex issue of complicity and influence. 4
Media Literacy as a Defense Taiwan’s efforts to enhance media literacy and fact-checking as a response to disinformation indicate a growing recognition of the issue’s severity. 3
AI and Disinformation The potential of artificial intelligence to accelerate the spread of disinformation poses a significant challenge to information integrity. 4
Public Trust in Institutions Erosion of public trust due to disinformation may lead to increased polarization and skepticism towards both local and foreign entities. 4
Election Integrity Concerns The influence of disinformation on voter behavior raises questions about the overall integrity of electoral processes in Taiwan and beyond. 5