Dave Dobson, a retired physics professor from Beloit College, had a secret past as a designer of a nuclear bomb. His involvement in the Nth Country Project, a covert Pentagon operation in 1964, is now relevant again due to the current global arms debate and threats from rogue states. The project aimed to determine if non-experts could crack the “nuclear secret” and build a bomb without access to classified research. Dobson and his partner, Bob Selden, were tasked with designing a bomb using publicly available information. The project was successful, and their design could have had a similar impact to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Dobson and Selden were troubled by their own capacities and the ease with which a bomb could be built. Dobson eventually left the field and became a teacher.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Dobson designed a nuclear bomb. | Increased accessibility of bomb | Increase in nuclear proliferation | Fear of nuclear terrorism |
| Non-experts were able to design a bomb. | Perception of bomb-making changed | Greater awareness of bomb-making | Spread of information |
| Materials for bomb-making can be locked up. | Possible difficulty in obtaining materials | Doubts about the security of materials | Security concerns |
| Dobson and Selden troubled by their own capacities | Awareness of personal ethical implications | Increased focus on ethics and responsibility | Moral considerations |
| Dobson left the sector after designing a bomb. | Personal choice to avoid contributing to arms race | Decrease in individuals working on nuclear weapons | Personal values and principles |
| Dobson became a teacher after designing a bomb. | Change in career trajectory | Shift towards education and teaching | Desire for positive contribution |