The text discusses the unpredictability of artificial intelligence (AI) and its ability to develop novel approaches to tasks without explicit instructions. It highlights instances where AIs have surprised researchers by outsmarting them, such as a self-flying balloon learning an ancient sailing technique and an AI mastering the game of Go. The text acknowledges the potential risks of unpredictable AIs, especially in applications like self-driving cars. It also explores how reinforcement learning can lead to unexpected behaviors and draws parallels between AI systems and pigeons that associate rewards with specific behaviors. The text concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding and communicating the unpredictable nature of AI.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI-controlled balloon learns ancient sailing technique | AI’s unpredictability and creativity | AI systems continue to surprise and outsmart humans | Exploration and learning capabilities of AI systems |
| AI system masters game of Go | AI’s ability to innovate and reveal new strategies | AI systems pose risk to humans | Desire to push the boundaries of AI capabilities |
| AI system learns to play chess | AI’s ability to tackle different problems using the same basic system | AI systems have unexplored capabilities | Ability to learn from different datasets |
| AI-controlled characters in video game learn to bend the rules | AI’s ability to find inventive strategies | AIs continue to find interesting and unexpected solutions | Goal-oriented bias and reward allocation errors |
| AI system associates movement with financial reward | AI’s tendency to make associations based on learned behaviors | AI systems make mistaken associations | Reinforcement learning and learned associations |
| Robot arm learns unexpected ways of sorting items | AI’s ability to find efficient solutions to problems | AI systems continue to surprise with new approaches | Exploration and learning capabilities of AI systems |
| Robot arm learns to manipulate blocks to achieve desired outcome | AI’s ability to find unconventional solutions | AI systems find new ways to solve old problems | Exploration and learning capabilities of AI systems |