The article discusses the “2024 Problem” in logistics, which refers to the looming deadline of April 1, 2024, when new regulations on overtime work for truck drivers in Japan will be implemented. These regulations will limit truck drivers to 960 hours per year and have significant implications for the transportation sector. The demand for home delivery in Japan has been increasing, especially during the pandemic, but the labor shortage in the logistics industry is becoming a major challenge. Industry analysts predict a 35 percent gap between delivery demand and the logistics labor force by 2030. The article also highlights the inefficiencies in the Japanese logistics system, such as low average load factors and the high cost of multiple delivery attempts. It suggests that leveraging new technology and adopting the concept of the “physical internet” could potentially address these issues.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| “2024 Problem” in logistics in Japan | Regulatory change in truck drivers | Mismatch between supply and demand | Labor shortage and aging population |
| Growing demand for home delivery in Japan | Increase in demand | Increased pressure on logistics industry | Growth in e-commerce transactions |
| Decrease in truck drivers in Japan | Decrease in labor force | 35% gap between demand and labor force | Grueling hours and low pay |
| Shortfall in truck transportation capacity | Decrease in capacity | Decreased sales and profits | New regulations on overtime work |
| Low average load factor in Japanese logistics | Inefficiency in logistics | Increased focus on efficiency | Specific delivery time requests |
| High cost of multiple delivery attempts in Japan | Cost inefficiency | Discussion on “free shipping” | Consumer preference and habits |
| Testing of driverless fleet and use of drones | Technological advancement | Integration of new technology | Solving labor shortage and costs |
| Adoption of “physical internet” in logistics | Change in logistics infrastructure | Unified route for cargo transportation | AI technology for efficient system |