Futures

L’impact d’El Niño sur les conflits civils dans l’hémisphère Sud depuis 1950, (from page 20240623.)

External link

Keywords

Themes

Other

Summary

Cette étude, dirigée par Solomon Hsiang, révèle que le phénomène climatique El Niño est lié à 21 % des conflits civils dans l’hémisphère Sud depuis 1950. Les chercheurs ont observé des corrélations entre les épisodes d’El Niño et 234 guerres civiles, mettant en lumière comment des conditions climatiques extrêmes peuvent exacerber les tensions sociales et économiques, menant à des conflits. Les pays les plus touchés par El Niño, comme ceux d’Amérique du Sud et d’Afrique, souffrent de sécheresses et de crises alimentaires, augmentant le risque de violence. Bien que le climat ne soit pas la cause directe des guerres, il contribue à des crises qui peuvent déclencher des conflits, comme observé dans des cas historiques au Pérou et au Soudan.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Climatic Impact on Civil Wars Increasing evidence linking climate events like El Niño to civil unrest in the Southern Hemisphere. Shift from viewing climate as a background factor to a significant trigger for civil conflicts. Potential rise in civil unrest due to climate variability and extreme weather events. Growing awareness of climate change effects on societal stability and resource availability. 5
Urban Pollution and Mobility Issues Growing concern over urban pollution and inadequate public transport systems in major cities. Shift from reliance on fossil fuels to sustainable transport solutions in urban planning. Cities may have transitioned to greener transport systems and reduced pollution levels significantly. Public demand for cleaner air and more sustainable living environments in urban areas. 4
Desertification and Rural Decline Concerns regarding rural desertification and neglect of greener regions in urban planning. Shift from urban-centric development to revitalizing rural areas and preserving green spaces. Rural areas may see revitalization efforts, preserving biodiversity and agricultural viability. Need for balanced development that values both urban and rural environments. 4
Food Security and Price Crises Historical link between climate events and food supply crises leading to social unrest. Recognition of climate-induced food insecurity as a precursor to civil strife. Enhanced food security strategies may emerge to buffer against climate-induced crises. Increasing global population and demand for food amid changing climate conditions. 5
Climate Policy Reform Calls for comprehensive global policies to address pollution and climate change. Shift from fragmented pollution policies to cohesive, global climate action frameworks. World may adopt unified policies to combat climate change and pollution effectively. Global urgency to mitigate climate change impacts on human health and ecosystems. 5

Concerns

name description relevancy
Climate-induced Civil Conflicts The correlation between climate events like El Niño and the onset of civil wars, particularly in vulnerable regions. 5
Vulnerability of Poor Countries Developing nations are particularly susceptible to the impacts of climatic changes, leading to increased instability and conflict. 5
Food Security Crisis Extreme weather patterns can contribute to food scarcity, escalating tensions and conflicts over resources. 4
Ineffective Pollution Policies Current approaches to pollution and climate change are insufficient, leading to environmental deterioration and social unrest. 5
Urban Overcrowding and Pollution Continued urbanization without addressing pollution may result in ghettos and increased public health issues. 4
Desertification and Environmental Management Failure to address land degradation and desertification may exacerbate climate and social challenges in the future. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Climate-Conflict Correlation Awareness Recognition of the link between climate events like El Niño and the onset of civil wars, particularly in vulnerable regions. 5
Research on Climate Impact Growing academic interest in studying how climate phenomena influence social stability and conflict. 4
Demand for Sustainable Policies Increasing public demand for comprehensive policies addressing climate change and pollution to prevent future conflicts. 5
Urbanization and Pollution Concerns Rising awareness of the challenges posed by urbanization, including pollution and social issues in dense city areas. 4
Historical Contextualization of Climate Events Utilizing historical examples to understand the impact of climate on societal unrest and conflict. 4
Advocacy for Green Development Calls for a transition towards environmentally friendly policies and practices to combat climate degradation. 5

Technologies

description relevancy src
Research on the correlation between climate events like El Niño and civil wars, providing data for understanding conflict triggers. 4 4f2c6ba6df568e57e40eb680e8a8a030
Developing policies and strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on social stability and conflict. 5 4f2c6ba6df568e57e40eb680e8a8a030
Innovative approaches to reduce urban pollution and improve public transport systems in response to climate challenges. 4 4f2c6ba6df568e57e40eb680e8a8a030
Technologies aimed at reducing water pollution to protect aquatic life and ensure sustainable water resources. 4 4f2c6ba6df568e57e40eb680e8a8a030
Urban development strategies focused on sustainability, reducing pollution, and promoting green spaces. 5 4f2c6ba6df568e57e40eb680e8a8a030

Issues

name description relevancy
Impact of Climate on Civil Conflicts The correlation between El Niño events and civil wars in the Southern Hemisphere indicates climate’s significant role in triggering conflicts. 5
Vulnerability of Poor Countries to Climate Events Countries with limited resources are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate phenomena like El Niño, leading to increased conflict risks. 4
Need for Global Pollution Policy The lack of a robust global strategy to address pollution and climate change is becoming increasingly critical for future sustainability. 5
Urbanization and Pollution Issues Rapid urbanization without proper infrastructure leads to pollution and social issues, highlighting the need for sustainable urban planning. 4
Food Security Crisis Linked to Climate Change Extreme weather events impact agricultural yields, raising food prices and potentially leading to civil unrest in vulnerable regions. 5
Desertification and Green Initiatives The increasing concern over desertification calls for initiatives to promote green spaces and sustainable land use in France and globally. 4