France was once a powerful nation in Europe due to its large population, but its decline can be attributed to a collapse in its birth rate. The decline in fertility in France happened earlier than in other European countries, and it was driven by cultural factors rather than economic forces. The loosening of traditional religious moral constraints played a significant role in the decline of fertility. This decline marked a turning point in human history, as it led to sustained economic growth and the escape from the Malthusian mechanism. The early decline in fertility in France can be attributed to the diminished influence of the Catholic Church and the secularization of society. This research highlights the importance of culture and the ability for preferences and norms to change in shaping demographic outcomes.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| France’s decline as a superpower | From Europe’s superpower to a first-rank European power | France remains a major economic power | Decline in fertility and influence of the Catholic Church |
| Early decline in fertility in France | Early decline compared to other countries | France experienced decline in fertility in the 1760s | Diminished influence of the Catholic Church and secularization |
| Importance of cultural factors | Role of culture in fertility decline | Cultural changes led to fertility decline in France | Loosening of traditional religious moral constraints and secularization |
| Demographic decline and adaptation | Demographic decline as a way to adapt to climate change | Demographic decline can generate a “demographic dividend” | Reduction of overpopulation and pressure, raising average incomes and living standards |
| Influence of culture and ideas | Impact of culture on societal changes | Cultural changes in France led to significant societal shifts | Change in preferences and norms can shape behavior and outcomes |