Futures

Non-Obvious Megatrends: Insights for Predicting the Future, (from page 20220922.)

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Summary

The final edition of the Non-Obvious trend series compiles insights from the past decade to highlight ten megatrends that will shape the future. This revised edition features a modern design and includes a comprehensive appendix evaluating over 100 past trend predictions. The identified megatrends explore various aspects of life, including technology interaction, learning, self-identity, and the evolving dynamics of industries. Notable trends encompass Flux Commerce, Protective Tech, Data Abundance, Purposeful Profit, Attention Wealth, Instant Knowledge, and Ungendering, all reflecting significant societal shifts and challenges ahead. The book has received multiple awards for its contributions to trend analysis and insights.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Flux Commerce Industries are blurring, disrupting traditional business models and consumer expectations. Shift from rigid industry boundaries to fluid, interconnected business models. Inter-industry collaborations will redefine commerce, leading to innovative consumer experiences. The need for adaptability in a fast-changing market environment. 4
Protective Tech Predictive technologies enhance safety but raise privacy concerns. Transition from traditional safety measures to tech-driven predictive solutions with privacy trade-offs. Society will balance safety and privacy, leading to new regulations and tech designs. Increasing demand for safety in a complex world drives tech innovation. 5
Data Abundance The prevalence of data leads to questions of ownership, bias, and usage ethics. Shift from data scarcity to abundance, prompting ownership and ethical debates. Data governance frameworks will emerge, shaping how data is utilized and owned. The exponential growth of data collection and analysis technologies. 5
Purposeful Profit Demand for sustainable and ethical practices influences company strategies. Shift from profit-only motives to incorporating sustainability and ethics in business. Companies will integrate social responsibility into their core strategies, reshaping markets. Consumer advocacy for ethical practices pushes businesses to adapt. 4
Attention Wealth Value of attention in the economy makes people skeptical of manipulation. Shift from passive consumption to critical engagement with media and information. Society will develop tools and norms to manage attention and information critically. The proliferation of information and manipulation tactics increases awareness. 4
Instant Knowledge Bite-sized information accelerates learning but risks depth of understanding. Transition from traditional learning to rapid, superficial knowledge acquisition. Education systems will evolve to balance instant knowledge with mastery and depth. Technological advancements facilitate instant access to information. 3
Ungendering Fluid understanding of gender identity replaces rigid traditional divisions. Shift from binary gender norms to a spectrum of identities and expressions. Cultural and social frameworks will evolve to embrace diverse gender identities. Societal movements advocating for gender inclusivity drive this change. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Flux Commerce Erosion of traditional industry boundaries may disrupt business models, lead to unexpected market volatility and alter consumer expectations. 4
Protective Tech Increased reliance on predictive technology raises concerns about privacy, as safety measures may come at the cost of personal data security. 5
Data Abundance The ubiquity of data brings up challenges regarding ownership, ethical usage, and potential biases embedded within data sets. 5
Purposeful Profit The push for sustainable and ethical practices may create tensions between profit motives and genuine consumer-driven change. 4
Attention Wealth In a hyper-informative society, the manipulation of attention could lead to increased skepticism and social distrust. 3
Instant Knowledge The preference for bite-sized information risks undermining deep understanding and mastery of complex subjects. 4
Ungendering A shift towards fluid gender identities could provoke backlash and cultural resistance against traditional gender norms. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Flux Commerce Erosion of industry boundaries resulting in disruption of business models and consumer expectations. 5
Protective Tech Increased reliance on predictive technology raises privacy concerns and trade-offs for safety and convenience. 5
Data Abundance Ubiquitous data usage prompts questions about ownership, profit, and biases within the data. 5
Purposeful Profit Demand for sustainable and ethical practices leads companies to adapt products and take public stances. 5
Attention Wealth In an information economy, attention is valuable, fostering skepticism towards manipulative spectacles. 4
Instant Knowledge Bite-sized knowledge on demand accelerates learning but risks undermining the value of mastery. 4
Ungendering A shift towards fluid gender identities prompts reevaluation of traditional gender divisions and perceptions. 5

Technologies

description relevancy src
Continual disruption of business models and consumer expectations as industry lines blur. 4 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
Predictive technology used for safety and convenience, raising privacy concerns. 5 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
Ubiquitous data usage posing questions on ownership, profit, and bias. 4 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
Demand for sustainable and ethical practices from consumers and employees. 5 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
Valuing consumer attention in the information economy, leading to skepticism towards manipulation. 4 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
Bite-sized knowledge on demand that accelerates learning but risks mastery loss. 3 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f
A fluid understanding of gender identity, challenging traditional divisions. 4 53c5550484135e9581500f193d2e8a0f

Issues

name description relevancy
Flux Commerce Erosion of industry boundaries leading to disruption in business models and consumer expectations. 5
Protective Tech Reliance on predictive technology raises privacy concerns and trade-offs. 5
Data Abundance Ubiquity of data raises questions about ownership, usage, and potential biases. 5
Purposeful Profit Demand for sustainable and ethical practices influences corporate behavior. 5
Attention Wealth Increased value of attention in the information economy leads to skepticism towards manipulation. 4
Instant Knowledge Demand for bite-sized knowledge enhances learning speed but risks mastery loss. 4
Ungendering Shift towards a fluid understanding of gender identity and reevaluation of societal perceptions. 5