The upcoming year is expected to challenge traditional business assumptions, presenting opportunities amidst uncertainty. Five key trends are identified: de-materialization, where technology replaces physical goods; de-globalization, leading to localized trade; elimination of interface friction through agentic AI; evolving organizational structures towards decentralization; and demographic shifts, particularly a wealth transfer to women and declining birth rates. To thrive, organizations must develop uncertainty capabilities including adaptability, early warning systems, strategic portfolios, and an entrepreneurial mindset. The focus should be on questioning core assumptions and being proactive rather than reactive to changes.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De-materialization of Products | Shift towards digital solutions replacing physical products and services. | Transitioning from physical goods to digital solutions and services. | By 2033, many industries may operate primarily through digital platforms, reducing reliance on physical products. | Advancements in technology enabling more efficient and accessible digital alternatives. | 5 |
| De-globalization in Trade | Shift away from global supply chains towards localized trading practices. | Moving from globalized trade models to localized, ‘friendshoring’ strategies. | In 2033, businesses may operate predominantly within localized markets, reducing global trade dependency. | Emerging global conflicts prompting companies to reassess supply chain strategies. | 4 |
| Elimination of Interface Friction | AI technologies removing barriers in human-software interaction. | Transitioning from traditional software interfaces to direct AI interactions. | In a decade, users may interact with technology seamlessly through AI, bypassing traditional software. | Advancements in agentic AI enabling more intuitive user experiences. | 5 |
| Decentralization of Organizational Structures | Shift towards decentralized and permissionless organizational frameworks. | Moving from hierarchical, bureaucratic structures to decentralized models. | By 2033, many organizations may operate on decentralized networks, enhancing agility and responsiveness. | Technological advancements enabling remote and decentralized operations. | 4 |
| Wealth Transfer to Women | Significant economic power shift towards women in the Baby Boomer generation. | Transitioning control of wealth and investments towards women, altering market dynamics. | By 2033, corporate strategies may increasingly reflect the preferences of women investors and stakeholders. | Demographic changes leading to a re-evaluation of economic power dynamics. | 5 |
| Declining Birth Rates | Global trend of decreasing birth rates among women, impacting demographics. | Shifting from higher birth rates to lower birth rates in developed nations. | In 2033, many countries may face workforce shortages and economic challenges due to low birth rates. | Women opting for personal and professional goals over traditional family structures. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Disruption to Traditional Business Models | The rapid shift to de-materialization may render established business models obsolete, impacting industries heavily reliant on physical products or services. | 5 |
| Impact of De-globalization on Supply Chains | The transition to localized trade may lead to inefficiencies and challenges in global supply chains, affecting delivery times and costs. | 4 |
| AI Interface Disruption | The rise of agentic AI could disrupt existing software applications, leaving businesses struggling to adapt their pricing and operational structures. | 4 |
| Decentralization of Organizational Structures | Shifts towards decentralized organizational structures could lead to inefficiencies and challenges in leadership and coordination as traditional hierarchies dissolve. | 4 |
| Wealth Transfer and Economic Power Shift | The impending transfer of wealth to women could significantly alter economic priorities and influence corporate strategies, with unpredictable implications. | 3 |
| Demographic Challenges | Decreasing birth rates and shifts in demographics may create long-term societal and economic challenges, primarily affecting labor markets and consumer bases. | 5 |
| Resistance to Change in Organizations | Organizations may struggle to adapt to fast-changing assumptions and environments, risking obsolescence if they fail to develop adaptability capabilities. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| De-materialization | The trend of achieving outcomes without physical devices, driven by advanced technologies like smartphones and streaming services. | 5 |
| De-globalization and localization | A shift from global supply chains to localized, friendshoring practices in response to geopolitical tensions and crises. | 4 |
| Elimination of interface friction | The rise of agentic AI which simplifies interactions with software, reducing the need for traditional interfaces and applications. | 5 |
| Decentralization of organizational structures | Rethinking traditional bureaucratic structures in favor of decentralized, flexible organizational models due to technological advancements. | 4 |
| Wealth transfer to women | A significant demographic shift where wealth among Baby Boomer women influences corporate priorities and investment patterns. | 4 |
| Changing family dynamics | Demographic trends indicating women are having fewer children, impacting societal structures and economic patterns. | 3 |
| Building uncertainty capabilities | Organizations developing the ability to adapt to changing assumptions and uncertainties as a strategic imperative. | 5 |
| description | relevancy | src |
|---|---|---|
| The trend of reducing physical devices and using technology to achieve outcomes previously requiring them, like smartphones and streaming services. | 5 | 55bac03899915f25bf0b47fa4342472c |
| Intelligent agents capable of interacting directly with databases, eliminating the need for traditional software interfaces and changing user interactions with technology. | 5 | 55bac03899915f25bf0b47fa4342472c |
| Shifting medical procedures from centralized facilities to decentralized settings, enabling patients to conduct diagnostics and treatments at home. | 4 | 55bac03899915f25bf0b47fa4342472c |
| Significant wealth transfer to women influencing investment patterns and corporate priorities, potentially reshaping stakeholder capitalism. | 4 | 55bac03899915f25bf0b47fa4342472c |
| Emerging need for organizations to rapidly reconfigure in response to changing assumptions and market conditions, minimizing bureaucratic hindrances. | 4 | 55bac03899915f25bf0b47fa4342472c |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| De-materialization in Business | Technological advancements are making physical products obsolete, reshaping entire industries and value chains. | 5 |
| De-globalization and Localization | A shift towards localized supply chains and ‘friendshoring’ is emerging, influenced by global conflicts and changing trade dynamics. | 4 |
| Elimination of Interface Friction | The rise of agentic AI will change how we interact with software, reducing the need for traditional business applications. | 5 |
| Decentralized Organizational Structures | Technological evolution is prompting a move away from hierarchical organizations towards decentralized, permissionless structures. | 4 |
| Demographic Shifts and Wealth Transfer | An unprecedented transfer of wealth to women and declining birth rates may reshape corporate priorities and economic power dynamics. | 5 |
| Uncertainty Capabilities in Organizations | Organizations must develop the ability to adapt rapidly to changes and embrace uncertainty as a source of opportunity. | 5 |