Futures

Navigating Uncertainty: Roger Spitz’s Framework for Systemic Change and Transformation, (from page 20250323d.)

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Summary

Roger Spitz, President of Techistential and Chair of the Disruptive Futures Institute, emphasized the need for new approaches to navigate the rising complexities of a ‘polycrisis’ during a recent event. His bestselling book, ‘Disrupt with Impact’, outlines a framework for reframing disruption as a catalyst for positive change, focusing on three principles: Antifragility (growing stronger through adversity), Anticipation (preparing for change), and Agility (adapting quickly to present circumstances). Spitz’s shift from finance to foresight highlights the importance of evaluating decisions for long-term resilience. Through innovative projects like the collaboration with Lux Carbon Standard, he aims to drive systemic change and empower local stakeholders. By fostering a community of foresight practitioners, Spitz advocates for transformative action that prioritizes potential over predictability, enabling a proactive response to an unpredictable world.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Emphasis on Foresight Growing recognition of the importance of foresight in navigating uncertainty and complex systems. Shift from reactive decision-making to proactive foresight-based strategies for addressing challenges. More organizations will integrate foresight into their decision-making processes, leading to adaptive and resilient systems. Increasing complexity and unpredictability in global challenges requiring new adaptive strategies. 4
Systems Thinking in Carbon Markets Emerging approaches to carbon markets are incorporating systems thinking and anticipatory governance. Transition from traditional carbon market approaches to more inclusive and anticipatory models. Carbon markets will be more equitable and effective, allowing for broader participation and better environmental outcomes. The need for fairer compensation and access for local stakeholders in carbon trading. 5
Rise of Adaptive Systems Growing momentum towards creating systems designed for adaptability under pressure. Shift from rigid, traditional organizational models to more flexible and adaptive frameworks. Organizations will increasingly thrive in volatile environments by embracing antifragile principles. The necessity for resilience in the face of multifaceted global challenges. 5
Shift in Decision-Making Frameworks Moving from efficiency-focused decision-making frameworks to those that prioritize resilience and adaptability. Change from short-term gains and stability assumptions to long-term impact and adaptability strategies. Decision-making will increasingly focus on resilience and system adaptability, influencing corporate governance. Recognition of the limitations of traditional frameworks in a complex and uncertain world. 4
Emergence of Polycrisis Awareness Awareness and acknowledgment of the interconnected nature of global crises are rising. Shift from viewing crises in isolation to understanding their interconnected impacts and responses. More integrated approaches will be developed to address complex global challenges collaboratively. The escalation of multiple global challenges necessitating a holistic review of crisis management strategies. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Systemic Collapse due to Polycrisis Interconnected crises like climate change, technology, and geopolitics pushing systems to breaking points, threatening societal stability. 5
Inadequate Decision-Making Frameworks Traditional frameworks failing to adapt to uncertainty, leading to poor decisions in complex environments. 4
Antifragility vs. Resilience The challenge of shifting from merely resilient systems to antifragile systems that thrive under pressure. 4
Foresight Deficiency in Leadership Lack of foresight and adaptability among decision-makers may exacerbate existing crises and stifle innovation. 4
Inequity in Climate Solutions Local landowners and small-scale stakeholders being disproportionately affected by climate strategies and markets. 4
Cognitive Agility in Governance Need for cognitive flexibility and cross-disciplinary approaches to navigate rapidly changing and complex environments. 3
Dependence on Predictability Risk of failing to address the unpredictability of future challenges due to over-reliance on stability and predictions. 4
Limited Capacity for Transformative Action Challenges in mobilizing communities for systemic change due to lack of resources and shared understanding. 4
Market Inefficacy in Environmental Strategies Voluntary carbon markets not being effective in achieving equitable and sustainable environmental outcomes. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Antifragility Designing systems that improve and grow stronger in response to shocks and pressures, rather than just resisting them. 5
Anticipatory Thinking Focusing on preparation for change by scanning for weak signals and evaluating potential scenarios instead of mere prediction. 5
Agile Decision-Making Adapting strategies in real-time through cognitive agility and cross-disciplinary experimentation in a nonlinear world. 5
Transformative Action Engaging local initiatives and bottom-up approaches to drive systemic change in the face of uncertainty. 4
Capacity Building for Foresight Developing skills and tools to enhance anticipatory thinking and create lasting impact in organizations and communities. 4

Technologies

description relevancy src
Systems designed to grow stronger under stress and shocks, moving beyond mere resilience. 4 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325
A method that prepares for change by scanning for signals and mapping potential future scenarios. 4 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325
The ability to adapt quickly to changes and uncertainties through cognitive flexibility and cross-disciplinary approaches. 4 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325
The skill to explore possible futures and adapt to complexities, informing decision-making and system design. 5 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325
Market systems designed to promote carbon offsetting through various stakeholders, enhancing environmental governance. 3 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325
Models that facilitate systemic change by integrating new thinking and practices to address complex challenges. 4 569e54d34c92bd75a1795d0d97c32325

Issues

name description relevancy
Polycrisis A complex system of interconnected global challenges like climate change and geopolitical tensions that creates cascading uncertainties. 5
Antifragile Systems Development of systems that improve under pressure, adapting dynamically instead of merely resisting shocks. 4
Anticipatory Thinking Shifting focus from prediction to preparation by scanning for weak signals and evaluating decisions across multiple outcomes. 4
Agility in Decision-Making Need for cognitive agility and cross-disciplinary thinking for effective decision-making in unpredictable environments. 4
Transformative Change The global shift towards building adaptive systems that prioritize resilience over efficiency, fostering systemic transformation. 5
Voluntary Carbon Markets Emerging frameworks in carbon trading aimed at increasing transparency and fair access to stakeholders, like local landowners. 3