The United States Air Force is making progress towards developing autonomous F-16 fighters that could rival human pilots in capability. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall recently flew in an autonomously-controlled X62A VISTA aircraft, which utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning from DARPA’s Air Combat Evolution program. These AI-controlled aircraft are expected to contribute to the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program, which aims to create a “system of systems” including a manned sixth-generation fighter along with autonomous platforms. Kendall’s flight demonstrated that the AI in the autonomous aircraft was able to simulate engagements against manned F-16s, performing on par with an experienced human pilot. While progress is being made, there are concerns and discussions about regulating AI and ensuring accountability for the use of autonomous combat systems. Despite these challenges, the United States recognizes the importance of developing this technology due to the advancements made by near-peer adversaries like China and Russia.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous F-16 Fighters Are ‘Roughly Even’ With Human Pilots | from human-piloted fighter jets to autonomous fighter jets | More advanced and capable autonomous fighter jets | Advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning |
| Development of autonomous loyal wingmen for the Air Force | from manned fighter jets being supported by humans to unmanned loyal wingmen | Manned fighter jets will be supported by autonomous loyal wingmen | Increased support, coordination, and capabilities in aerial combat |
| Concerns over the regulation and accountability of AI-controlled military technology | from lack of regulation and accountability to regulated and accountable use of AI in warfare | Clear rules and regulations for the use of AI in warfare to ensure compliance with norms | The need to hold individuals accountable for the development, testing, and use of AI-controlled military technology |
| Competition with China and Russia in developing autonomous military technology | from sole development by the United States to global competition among major powers | Increased competition and advancements in autonomous military technology | The race to gain a competitive edge in future warfare and maintain operational effectiveness. |