Futures

Le COBOL en voie d’extinction : un langage informatique en déclin face aux nouvelles technologies., (from page 20230528.)

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Themes

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Summary

Le COBOL, un langage informatique créé en 1959, est en déclin, avec de moins en moins de développeurs compétents alors que les systèmes bancaires et d’assurance en dépendent encore largement. Les entreprises s’arrachent les rares codeurs COBOL restants, avec des offres d’emploi en hausse. Bien que le langage ait été enseigné dans le passé, il n’est plus inclus dans les programmes universitaires français depuis plus de quinze ans. Les jeunes développeurs préfèrent des langages modernes comme JavaScript ou Python, considérant le COBOL comme désuet et peu attrayant. Cette situation soulève des inquiétudes quant à la pérennité des systèmes critiques qui reposent sur ce langage.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Decline of COBOL expertise Fewer IT professionals are skilled in COBOL as older generations retire. Transition from a workforce experienced in COBOL to one lacking this knowledge. In 10 years, critical systems may struggle due to a shortage of COBOL developers. The aging workforce and lack of new training programs for COBOL. 5
Increased demand for COBOL developers Banks and insurance companies are competing for the few remaining COBOL programmers. Shift from an oversupply of developers to a fierce competition for scarce COBOL skills. In 10 years, COBOL expertise could become a highly valued niche skill in finance. The ongoing reliance on legacy systems that require COBOL for maintenance. 4
Generational gap in programming languages Younger developers prefer modern languages like JavaScript and Python over COBOL. Shift from traditional programming languages to more contemporary and popular options. In 10 years, programming education may focus entirely on modern languages, neglecting COBOL. The tech industry’s evolution and trends favoring modern, versatile languages. 4
Perception of COBOL as obsolete COBOL is seen by younger developers as outdated and ‘not sexy’. Transition from a respected programming language to one viewed as obsolete. In 10 years, COBOL might be considered a relic, with minimal new development. Cultural shifts in technology favoring innovation over legacy systems. 3
Lack of COBOL education in universities French universities have stopped teaching COBOL to new students. Shift from formal COBOL education to a gap in knowledge transfer. In 10 years, the expertise gap in COBOL may hinder legacy system support. Curriculum updates that focus on modern programming languages. 5

Concerns

name description relevancy
Extinction of COBOL programmers The dwindling number of COBOL programmers could lead to a shortage of skilled personnel capable of maintaining critical systems. 4
System outages due to lack of COBOL expertise If COBOL systems fail and there are insufficient programmers to address issues, it could disrupt financial and insurance services. 5
Inability to train new COBOL developers The lack of educational programs teaching COBOL may lead to a total knowledge gap in maintaining essential legacy systems. 4
Increased cybersecurity risks As systems become outdated and unsupported, they may become more vulnerable to cyber threats without capable programmers to secure them. 5
Cultural disconnect with technology Younger developers may be unprepared for maintaining outdated but crucial technology due to their preference for modern programming languages. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Declining COBOL Expertise The number of developers proficient in COBOL is decreasing as older generations retire, leading to a scarcity of skilled professionals in the field. 5
High Demand for COBOL Developers Despite the decline in COBOL knowledge, there is a significant demand from banks and insurance companies for developers who can maintain legacy systems. 4
Shift in Programming Language Preferences Younger developers are gravitating towards modern languages like JavaScript and Python, viewing COBOL as outdated and less appealing. 4
Legacy System Challenges Organizations are facing challenges in maintaining legacy systems built on COBOL due to the lack of new professionals entering the field. 5
Cultural Perception of Programming Languages There is a cultural shift where programming languages like COBOL are perceived as ‘not sexy,’ influencing the choices of new developers. 3

Technologies

name description relevancy
Cobol Maintenance Services Services aimed at maintaining and updating legacy COBOL systems in banks and insurance companies. 4
Modern Programming Languages Emerging programming languages like JavaScript and Python are gaining popularity among new developers, overshadowing older languages like COBOL. 5
Interconnectivity Technologies Technologies that enhance interconnectivity between different computer systems, a principle that COBOL was designed to facilitate. 3

Issues

name description relevancy
Decline of COBOL Programmers The dwindling number of COBOL programmers poses a risk to the maintenance of legacy systems in financial institutions. 5
Generational Shift in Programming Languages Younger developers are gravitating towards modern programming languages, leading to a skills gap in legacy languages like COBOL. 4
Legacy System Vulnerability As COBOL programmers retire, the reliance on outdated systems may expose banks and insurers to operational risks. 4
Job Market Competition for COBOL Skills Increased competition among financial organizations to hire COBOL programmers indicates a potential job market crisis for this niche skill. 4
Educational Gap in COBOL Training The lack of COBOL education in universities may lead to a shortage of qualified programmers in the future. 5
Perception of COBOL as Outdated The perception of COBOL as obsolete could discourage new talent from learning it, exacerbating the skills shortage. 3