Futures

Impact of Generative AI on Early-Career Employment: A Study, (from page 20250921d.)

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Summary

This paper explores the impacts of generative artificial intelligence on the labor market, specifically focusing on early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations. It reports a significant 13% relative decline in employment for workers aged 22-25 in these fields since the adoption of generative AI, while employment remains stable for less exposed fields and more experienced workers. The decline primarily affects roles susceptible to automation, with changes occurring more through job loss than reduced wages. The findings suggest that the AI revolution is disproportionately affecting entry-level workers. A presentation of the paper’s results will be part of an ongoing Seminar Series, accessible to the Stanford community.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Decline in Early-Career Employment Early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations facing employment declines. Shift from stable employment for entry-level workers to significant job losses. A potential future where young workers may struggle to find stable job opportunities in certain fields. The rapid integration of generative AI in workplaces automating tasks traditionally done by entry-level employees. 5
Job Growth in Less Exposed Fields Stable job growth for workers in less AI-exposed fields and experienced workers. Transition from general job stability to sector-specific job growth depending on AI exposure. Possible bifurcation in labor market where some sectors thrive while others collapse under AI pressure. Differing rates of AI adoption across industries creating uneven employment opportunities. 4
Automation vs Augmentation in Jobs AI automation primarily affecting entry-level jobs over augmentation of existing roles. Change from job enhancement to potential job displacement for entry-level positions. Future landscape may see fewer entry-level positions as AI takes over basic functions. The design and capabilities of generative AI technologies lean towards automation rather than enhancing jobs. 5
Robust Findings Across Variables Consistent results regardless of exclusion of tech firms or remote-friendly roles. Shift from localized impacts to broad, generalized effects on labor across varying sectors. Long-term impacts where AI’s footprint is felt widely and consistently across labor sectors. The universal applicability of generative AI in various job roles mitigating previous assumptions about sector-specific risks. 4

Concerns

name description
Impact on Early-Career Employment Generative AI adoption leads to a 13% decline in employment for early-career workers, posing long-term career challenges.
Automation vs Augmentation AI is automating roles instead of augmenting human workers, threatening job security in specific sectors.
Disproportionate Effect on Entry-Level Jobs The AI revolution affects entry-level jobs more significantly, risking a generation’s economic mobility.
Stability of Experienced Workers While entry-level positions suffer, more experienced workers may face less immediate risk, leading to a workforce divide.
Nature of Employment Adjustments Adjustments mainly occur through employment loss rather than compensation changes, indicating a potential for wage stagnation.

Behaviors

name description
Decline in Early-Career Employment Young workers in AI-exposed occupations face a significant employment decline, highlighting the vulnerability of entry-level positions to automation.
Stability for Experienced Workers More experienced individuals in AI-affected fields see stable or growing employment, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring seasoned professionals.
AI Automation vs. Augmentation Employers are primarily automating jobs rather than augmenting them with AI, impacting human labor availability in specific sectors.
Impact of Generative AI on Labor Market The presence of generative AI is reshaping the American labor market, particularly affecting how entry-level jobs are structured and filled.
Shift from Compensation to Employment Adjustments The changes in the labor market are occurring through job availability rather than wage alterations, indicating employers’ responses to AI integration.
Increased Need for Seminar Discussions The rise of generative AI’s impact prompts discussions and presentations in professional forums, engaging communities to understand these changes.

Technologies

name description
Generative Artificial Intelligence AI systems capable of generating text, images, and other content, significantly impacting labor markets and job roles.

Issues

name description
Impact of Generative AI on Entry-Level Jobs Generative AI is causing a notable decline in employment for early-career workers, raising concerns about job security in AI-exposed occupations.
Job Market Polarization The employment landscape is becoming polarized, with stability in less AI-exposed fields versus declines in high AI-exposure occupations.
Automation vs Augmentation The trend shows a shift towards automation in occupations, which may result in fewer entry-level opportunities as AI replaces human labor.
Long-term Effects of AI Adoption The ongoing adoption of AI technologies could lead to broader and more permanent changes in labor market dynamics over time.
Skill Gap in AI-Driven Market Early-career workers may lack necessary skills to transition into roles that are augmented by AI rather than replaced by it.