Futures

Navigating the Diminishing Availability of Spare Parts for Vintage Vehicles in an Evolving Automotive Landscape, (from page 20230122.)

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Summary

The article discusses the impending obsolescence of spare parts for older vehicles, particularly highlighted through the experience of Ryan McManus with his 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser. Onur Azeri, a veteran in the Toyota parts industry, warns that the availability of parts for such vehicles is diminishing due to shifts in the automotive landscape, notably the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The decrease in demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle parts, combined with supply chain disruptions, indicates a future where fewer aftermarket parts are produced. This situation poses a dilemma for owners of vintage vehicles: whether to repair their vehicles while parts are still available or sell them at high market values. The discussion reflects broader trends in the automotive industry and the impact of evolving technologies on vehicle maintenance and ownership.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Parts Obsolescence for ICE Vehicles Availability of spare parts for internal combustion engine vehicles is rapidly declining. Shift from abundant parts availability for ICE vehicles to scarcity due to industry transition to BEVs. A significant reduction in the aftermarket supply for ICE vehicles, making maintenance difficult and costly. Transition to battery electric vehicles and supply chain disruptions affecting parts production. 5
Market Value Surge for Vintage Vehicles Increased valuation and interest in vintage ICE vehicles amid modern vehicle supply shortages. From declining interest in older vehicles to a resurgence in their market value due to scarcity of new cars. Vintage ICE vehicles may become collector’s items as supply of new vehicles and parts diminishes. Supply chain issues driving up used vehicle values and romanticism for vintage cars. 4
Change in Automotive Business Models Automakers shifting focus from parts sales to connected subscription services. Transition from traditional parts sales models to subscription-based services in the automotive industry. Automakers may rely more on recurring subscription revenue rather than one-time parts sales. The need for sustainable revenue streams as vehicle ownership models evolve. 4
Supply Chain Impact on Automotive Parts Historic changes in supply chain logistics are affecting parts availability. From stable, efficient supply chains to disrupted and unpredictable parts availability. Parts availability may become a major concern for vehicle maintenance and repair. Global supply chain disruptions, particularly in semiconductor supply, reshaping automotive industry. 5
Shift to Less Complex Vehicles Battery electric vehicles require fewer consumable parts compared to ICE vehicles. From complex internal combustion vehicles needing numerous parts to simpler electric vehicles. A decrease in the overall parts market as BEVs become the norm, impacting service industries. The design of BEVs prioritizing efficiency and reduced part requirements. 5

Concerns

name description relevancy
Parts Obsolescence for ICE Vehicles The diminishing availability of spare parts for older internal combustion engine vehicles as production shifts to BEVs. 5
Supply Chain Disruptions Ongoing supply chain challenges affecting the availability of automotive parts, particularly semiconductors. 4
Transition to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) The automotive industry’s shift to BEVs reducing the need for traditional parts, impacting aftermarket sales. 5
Impact on Vintage Vehicle Maintenance Rising challenges in maintaining classic vehicles due to parts shortages, affecting their market viability. 4
Changing Business Models for Automakers Shift from parts sales to subscription and service models by automakers in response to changing vehicle technology. 4
Economic Value of Vintage Vehicles The fluctuating market value of vintage vehicles amidst supply challenges and rising upkeep costs. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Proactive Maintenance for Vintage Vehicles Owners of older vehicles are encouraged to proactively replace entire systems rather than individual parts due to impending obsolescence. 4
Shift to Electric Vehicle (EV) Ownership A growing number of consumers are considering transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles, influenced by the decreasing availability of parts. 5
Vintage Vehicle Investment Increased interest and investment in vintage vehicles driven by nostalgia and rising values, leading to potential challenges in maintenance and parts availability. 4
Connected Subscription Services in Automotive Automakers are shifting business models from selling parts to offering subscription services for connected vehicles, reflecting changing consumer needs. 5
Market Speculation on Parts Availability Car owners are starting to speculate on parts availability, influencing whether to invest in repairs or sell vehicles based on market trends. 4
Increased Value of Used Vehicles Due to supply chain disruptions, the depreciation of used vehicles has stalled, leading to historically high resale values. 3

Technologies

description relevancy src
Vehicles powered entirely by electric batteries, requiring fewer and more complex parts than internal combustion engine vehicles. 5 633655a8e8a99ad217f019928a2b8dc1
Business models for automakers transitioning from parts sales to subscription services for vehicle features and maintenance. 4 633655a8e8a99ad217f019928a2b8dc1
New methods and technologies in semiconductor production and distribution reshaping the automotive industry. 4 633655a8e8a99ad217f019928a2b8dc1

Issues

name description relevancy
Obsolescence of Spare Parts for ICE Vehicles The declining availability of spare parts for internal combustion engine vehicles as the industry shifts to electric vehicles. 5
Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions Ongoing supply chain issues affecting the availability of automotive parts, particularly semiconductors, reshaping the industry. 4
Transition to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) The automotive industry’s transition to BEVs may reduce the demand for aftermarket parts and change business models. 5
Increased Value of Vintage Vehicles Rising interest and values for vintage vehicles due to supply chain issues and changing market dynamics. 3
Changing Business Models in Automotive Industry Automakers shifting from parts sales to subscription services as the market for ICE vehicle parts shrinks. 4