This text discusses the potential end of spare parts availability for older vehicles, specifically focusing on the author’s experience with a 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser. The author’s friend, who is knowledgeable about Toyota parts, reveals that the reliable access to parts for decades-old vehicles is diminishing. Two factors contributing to this are the impact of supply chain logistics and the industry’s transition to battery electric vehicles. The author highlights the challenges that may arise for owners of vintage vehicles in terms of finding and maintaining parts in the future. The text also touches on the current scarcity of new cars and the increasing value of vintage vehicles.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of spare parts for older vehicles | Availability of spare parts for old vehicles | Limited availability of parts for older cars | Transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) |
| Shift from aftermarket parts sales to subscription services | Business models in the automotive industry | Automakers focusing on connected subscription services | Transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) |
| Supply chain disruptions affecting availability of new cars | Availability of new cars | Limited availability of new cars | Supply chain disruptions and semiconductor supply |
| Resurgent interest in vintage vehicles | Valuation and demand for vintage vehicles | Increased demand for vintage vehicles | Resurgent romanticism and market trends |
| Parts shortage challenge for older vehicles | Availability of aftermarket options | Limited availability of quality aftermarket parts | Parts shortage and limited options |
| Similarity of cooling systems in EVs and ICE vehicles | Cooling systems in electric and internal combustion vehicles | Similarity in cooling systems for both types of vehicles | Clarification of misconception regarding EV cooling systems |