The text discusses critical issues in the field of foresight and futures thinking, highlighting problems such as trend obsession, predictive limitations, and reliance on data metrics, which fail to account for the fluidity of the future. It emphasizes that current foresight practices often reinforce existing systems rather than challenge them. The author proposes a shift towards a more imaginative and transformative approach to futures thinking, advocating for a balance between responding to existing problems and envisioning new possibilities. The concept of the “future thinker’s dilemma” is introduced, contrasting the reactive “Push of the Future” against the proactive “Pull of the Future.” Ultimately, the text calls for a redefined purpose in foresight, urging practitioners to prioritize transformative futures that foster human and planetary well-being.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Hunting Issues | Current trend hunting is biased towards linear, mechanistic systems and hyper-masculine perspectives. | Shifting from extractive to inclusive and diverse approaches in trend analysis. | More holistic and diverse methodologies will dominate trend analysis, reflecting broader societal values. | The push for inclusivity and diversity in understanding societal trends. | 4 |
| Imagination in Foresight | Foresight is constrained by predictive mechanisms that limit imagination. | Moving from predictive to imaginative and experiential futures thinking. | Futures thinking will emphasize creativity and experiential consciousness over data-driven predictions. | The need for organizations to adapt to rapidly changing environments through creativity. | 5 |
| Data Overload | Overemphasis on data leads to neglect of deeper thinking and understanding of the future. | Transitioning from data-driven to contextually aware foresight practices. | Foresight practices will prioritize qualitative insights and human experiences over quantitative metrics. | Recognition of the limitations of data in capturing complex future realities. | 5 |
| Short-Termism in Decision-Making | A tendency towards quick actions without considering long-term implications. | From short-term actions to long-term strategic foresight and planning. | Organizations will adopt a long-term perspective in their strategic planning processes. | The urgency of addressing global challenges that require sustainable solutions. | 4 |
| Colonial Assumptions in Practicality | Current views on practicality favor western scientific knowledge at the expense of lived experiences. | Shifting towards recognizing diverse knowledge systems and lived experiences as valid. | Future practices will integrate multiple knowledge systems to inform decision-making. | A growing awareness of the importance of indigenous and diverse perspectives in all fields. | 4 |
| Foresight’s Jargon Problem | The academic nature of foresight may alienate broader audiences. | Moving towards more accessible and inclusive language in foresight discussions. | Foresight will become more inclusive, engaging a wider audience in discussions about the future. | The need for broader participation in shaping future narratives and decisions. | 3 |
| Systemic Change Necessity | Current systems are inadequate for addressing complex global challenges. | From maintaining existing systems to fostering transformative change. | New systems focused on sustainability and well-being will emerge, replacing outdated models. | The increasing recognition of interconnected global crises and the need for systemic solutions. | 5 |
| Emerging Futures Paradigm | The call for transformational thinking that transcends current systems. | Shift from extractive to regenerative models of foresight and planning. | Foresight will emphasize regenerative practices that prioritize people and the planet. | A collective realization of the unsustainability of current economic and social models. | 5 |
| Leadership Crisis Recognition | An acknowledgment of the inadequacy of current leadership in addressing complex challenges. | Transitioning from traditional to transformational leadership models. | More leaders will emerge who prioritize holistic, inclusive, and transformative practices. | The demand for leaders who can navigate complexity and inspire collective action. | 4 |
| Collective Healing in Workplaces | The desire for workplaces to become spaces of healing and growth. | From exploitative work environments to supportive and regenerative workplaces. | Workplaces will increasingly focus on employee well-being and holistic development. | The recognition of the importance of mental health and well-being in professional settings. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Trend Hunting Problem | Foresight is driven by a linear, mechanistic system focused on profit, potentially ignoring broader important themes. | 5 |
| Time Constraint Problem | Predictive foresight limits imagination by creating a linear framework of what the future may hold, restricting holistic thinking. | 4 |
| Measurement Issue | Current metrics are inadequate for grasping the nature of an ever-changing future, potentially leading to misguided actions. | 5 |
| Action-Driven Myopia | A tendency to rush into actions without considering long-term consequences or alternatives, driven by a short-term focus. | 4 |
| Assumption of Past Reflection | Belief that future trends will mirror past experiences can lead to flawed foresight and poor decision-making. | 5 |
| Academic Jargon Barrier | High levels of jargon in foresight may alienate practical applications and hinder diverse participation. | 3 |
| Ageism in Foresight | The exclusion of diverse age perspectives may result in diminished foresight capacity and innovation. | 4 |
| Male Dominance Problem | Exclusion of feminine perspectives in foresight could limit innovative thinking and equitable solutions. | 4 |
| Systematic Reproduction of Problems | Existing solutions perpetuate problems rather than create transformative change, risking stagnation. | 5 |
| Limited Vision for Future Systems | Current approaches fail to envision transformative systems necessary for a sustainable and equitable future. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Critical Assessment of Foresight | Emphasizing the need to critically evaluate the existing practices in foresight and futures thinking for better outcomes. | 5 |
| Transformational Futures Thinking | Shifting from predictive to transformational approaches in futures thinking to create aspirational futures. | 5 |
| Collective Dialogue and Collaboration | Promoting collective dialogues and collaborative experiences to foster emergent futures across cultures and societies. | 4 |
| Holistic Integration of Experience | Incorporating lived experiences and holistic approaches into foresight practices that transcend quantitative analysis. | 4 |
| Challenging Extractive Systems | Rethinking how to address problems created by linear, extractive systems through imaginative and transformative practices. | 5 |
| Emphasis on Anticipatory Imagination | Cultivating anticipatory imagination to envision and manifest novel futures beyond current limitations. | 4 |
| Recognition of Diverse Perspectives | Acknowledging and integrating diverse perspectives, including age and gender inclusivity, in foresight methodologies. | 4 |
| Embracing Complexity over Complication | Focusing on understanding complex systems rather than complicating them through unnecessary processes. | 4 |
| Future-Oriented Healing Work | Creating work environments that promote healing, growth, and individual expression as integral to organizational change. | 4 |
| Transitioning to Regenerative Practices | Shifting from extractive to regenerative practices that foster sustainability and collective well-being. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Futures Thinking and Foresight | A strategic approach that emphasizes understanding potential futures and developing proactive solutions rather than reactive ones. | 5 |
| Ontological Unpredictability | The concept that the future is inherently unpredictable and shaped by complex, shifting variables rather than deterministic models. | 4 |
| Epistemic Uncertainty | An approach to foresight that emphasizes the importance of understanding the limits of knowledge and the complexities of the future. | 4 |
| Transformational Futures | A future-oriented mindset that focuses on creating aspirational and transformative societal outcomes rather than merely extrapolating existing trends. | 5 |
| Holoptic Foresight Dynamics | An integrative approach to foresight that considers biological, psychological, and sacred dimensions of future thinking. | 3 |
| Collective and Collaborative Dialogues | Methods to engage diverse groups in dialogues that inspire shared visions and collaborative futures. | 4 |
| Regenerative Futures | Futures thinking that emphasizes sustainability, health, and the well-being of all living systems in its solutions. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Foresight’s Trend Problem | Current foresight practices are driven by a linear, profit-focused system, neglecting alternative perspectives and inclusivity. | 4 |
| Foresight’s Time Problem | Predictive mechanisms limit human imagination and fail to consider the fluid nature of the future. | 5 |
| Foresight’s Measurement Problem | Attempting to measure the future with present-day metrics is ineffective due to the dynamic nature of emerging realities. | 5 |
| Action Problem in Foresight | A tendency towards immediate actions without considering long-term consequences, driven by short-termism. | 4 |
| Past Problem in Foresight | Assuming that future trends will mirror past experiences can misguide foresight practices. | 4 |
| Jargon Problem in Foresight | The use of overly academic language can alienate wider audiences from important foresight discussions. | 3 |
| Ageism in Foresight | The foresight field may overlook valuable insights from various age groups, limiting its effectiveness. | 3 |
| Male Dominance in Foresight | The field has historically been male-dominated, affecting the inclusivity of perspectives. | 4 |
| Epistemic Uncertainty vs. Ontological Unpredictability | Traditional foresight models struggle to adapt to the complexity and unpredictability of the future. | 5 |
| Three Evil Es (Extrapolation, Exponentiality, Extraction) | Current systems are driven by unhealthy narratives that hinder transformative foresight practices. | 5 |
| Need for Transformational Foresight | A call for foresight to focus on aspirational futures rather than merely reacting to current trends. | 5 |
| Crisis of Leadership | Current leadership models are inadequate for addressing complex, emergent challenges in foresight. | 4 |