Futures

Deep-Sea Mining: A Sustainable Solution to the Battery-Metal Shortage?, (from page 20230708.)

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Summary

Deep-sea mining is emerging as a potential solution to the increasing global demand for nickel, essential for electric car batteries, as traditional mining in Indonesia leads to significant rainforest destruction. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a need for 6.3 million tonnes of nickel annually by 2040, with Indonesia currently accounting for about half of the global supply. Mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean could provide a more sustainable alternative, with estimates of 340 million tonnes of nickel available in seabed nodules. While underwater mining poses environmental risks, it is suggested to have a smaller ecological footprint compared to rainforest mining. Companies like The Metals Company are preparing to tap into these resources, which could help mitigate deforestation while meeting the battery-metal demand.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Deep-sea mining regulations Upcoming regulations by the ISA may pave the way for commercial seabed mining. Transitioning from land-based nickel mining to deep-sea mining to meet battery demand. In 10 years, seabed mining could be a major source of battery metals, reshaping the industry. Rising demand for battery metals due to the electrification of vehicles and renewable energy. 5
Electric vehicle market growth Rapid growth in electric vehicle sales is driving demand for battery metals. Shift from internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles globally. 10 years from now, electric vehicles could dominate the automotive market. Climate change initiatives and government regulations pushing for electric vehicle adoption. 5
Shifts in nickel sourcing Indonesia’s nickel production is rising, but a shift to deep-sea mining is emerging as an alternative. Moving from deforestation-driven nickel mining in Indonesia to deep-sea mining. Potential reduction of rainforest destruction in Indonesia, with seabed mining taking precedence. Environmental concerns and sustainability pressures on nickel sourcing. 4
Environmental impact of seabed mining Deep-sea mining may have a smaller ecological footprint compared to land-based mining. Comparison of ecological impacts between seabed and land-based nickel mining. Understanding of deep-sea ecosystems could lead to more sustainable mining practices. Desire to balance industrial needs with ecological preservation. 4
Technological advancements in mining Robotic technologies being developed for deep-sea mining operations. Adoption of advanced technologies for underwater extraction of minerals. In 10 years, underwater mining technologies may be widely used and improved. Innovation in robotics and automation to enhance mining efficiency. 3

Concerns

name description relevancy
Deep-sea Ecosystem Destruction Mining in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone will destroy unique marine organisms and disturb delicate ecosystems, potentially leading to biodiversity loss. 5
Environmental Impact of Nickel Production Despite a smaller footprint, underwater mining will still cause significant ecological damage, with risks to marine biodiversity and sediment dispersion. 4
Dependency on Nickel Supply Chains Growing demand for nickel from electric vehicle batteries could strain global supply chains and lead to geopolitical tensions over resource availability. 4
Deforestation in Indonesia Increased nickel mining in Indonesia could lead to accelerated deforestation, impacting terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage. 5
Climate Change Implications Mining operations might produce significant greenhouse gas emissions, countering efforts for decarbonization and worsening climate change. 5
Regulatory Challenges in Undersea Mining Lack of clear regulations for undersea mining might result in unregulated exploitation of marine resources, posing long-term environmental risks. 4
Impact on Indigenous Communities Mining expansions in Indonesia may disrupt local communities who rely on forests and the ocean, leading to social and cultural upheaval. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Deep-sea mining for battery metals Companies are beginning to explore and mine the ocean floor for nickel and other metals to meet the growing demand for electric vehicle batteries. 5
Shift towards renewable energy sources Countries are transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy, increasing the need for battery storage solutions. 5
Increased scrutiny of environmental impact As deep-sea mining expands, there is a growing awareness of its ecological effects compared to traditional mining. 4
Regulatory changes in seabed mining International regulations for seabed mining are evolving, affecting how companies can access these resources. 4
Technological advancements in mining Development of advanced underwater robots and systems for efficient extraction of seabed minerals. 4
Balancing energy production and environmental concerns The need for low-emission energy sources in nickel processing is becoming a priority in mining operations. 4
Comparative analysis of mining practices Evaluating the environmental impact of seabed mining versus land-based mining methods is gaining traction. 4
Rising demand for electric vehicles The surge in electric vehicle production is driving up the need for nickel and other battery materials. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Deep-Sea Mining Extraction of minerals like nickel and cobalt from the ocean floor, particularly in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, to meet battery material demands. 5
Robotic Seabed Collectors High-tech robots designed to collect mineral nodules from the ocean floor, minimizing human intervention and enhancing efficiency. 4
Sustainable Metal Processing Processing seabed nodules with lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to land-based mining, leveraging renewable energy sources. 4
Electric Vehicle Batteries Batteries developed for electric vehicles, requiring high-quality minerals like nickel and cobalt, driving demand for alternative sources. 5
Renewable Energy Integration Integration of wind and solar power into power grids, increasing the demand for energy storage solutions such as batteries. 5

Issues

name description relevancy
Deep-Sea Mining Regulation The impending expiration of the ISA’s deadline for deep-sea mining regulations may lead to unregulated mining practices. 4
Battery-Metal Demand Surge The growing demand for battery metals driven by electric vehicle production could lead to environmental degradation and resource conflicts. 5
Nickel Supply Chain Shift The shift from land-based nickel mining to deep-sea mining may alter environmental impacts and economic dynamics in resource-rich regions. 4
Environmental Impact of Seabed Mining Deep-sea mining poses risks to unique marine ecosystems, raising concerns about biodiversity loss and ecological balance. 5
Climate Change and Resource Extraction The link between climate change initiatives and increased resource extraction raises ethical and environmental dilemmas. 4
Ecosystem Comparison Metrics The comparison of ecological impacts between terrestrial and marine mining highlights the need for better assessment metrics. 3
Alternative Energy Sources and Mining The potential for low-emission energy use in deep-sea mining operations could influence future mining practices. 3