Deep-sea mining is being considered as a solution to the world’s battery-metal shortage, particularly the shortage of nickel. The demand for minerals used in batteries is increasing due to the electrification project and the shift towards renewable power. Nickel is essential for high-quality electric-car batteries. While Indonesia has been meeting the demand for nickel by destroying rainforests, there is an alternative in the form of mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean. This area holds a large amount of nickel and other metals, and companies are interested in mining it. Mining the seabed has a smaller environmental footprint compared to land-based mining, and the nodules contain higher concentrations of metal. Although there are still environmental impacts, such as the destruction of organisms and sediment plumes, mining the CCZ may reduce the pressure on Indonesian forests. Despite this, it is unlikely to completely replace land-based mining due to the growing demand for batteries.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep-sea mining to ease battery-metal shortage | From land-based mining to deep-sea mining | Increase in deep-sea mining operations | Demand for battery metals and need for decarbonization |
| Nickel demand rising for electric-car batteries | Increased demand for nickel | Increased production of nickel | Decarbonization goals and growing electric-car market |
| Indonesia responsible for most nickel growth | Shift from Indonesia to deep-sea mining | Indonesia’s nickel production decreases | Lower environmental impact and meeting rising demand |
| Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) holds trillions of nickel nodules | Potential shift to mining the CCZ | Increased availability of nickel resources | Need for battery metals and depletion of land-based reserves |
| Environmental impact of deep-sea mining | Smaller environmental footprint compared to land-based mining | Potential reduction in biodiversity loss | Need for battery metals and lower emissions during processing |
| Energy efficiency of deep-sea mining | Less energy required for processing nodules | Lower greenhouse gas emissions | Need for battery metals and lower emissions during processing |
| Deep-sea mining as alternative to land-based mining | Supplementing land-based mining | Reduced pressure on land-based mining | Need for battery metals and lower environmental impact |
| Start of deep-sea mining operations by The Metals Company | Launch of deep-sea mining by The Metals Company | Increased availability of nickel and other metals | Need for battery metals and lower environmental impact |