This text discusses the performance of different AI systems on IQ tests, particularly focusing on the release of Claude-3 and its significant improvement in scoring. The author highlights the importance of providing AIs with special accommodations, similar to blind individuals, to improve their scores. Verbalizing the test questions allowed one AI, ChatGPT-4, to achieve a scoreable IQ. The author administered the Norway Mensa test to various AIs and compared their performance. The text also explores the potential future progress of AI systems and the impact it may have on society. Overall, AI intelligence, IQ testing, and AI progress are the main themes discussed in the text.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIs ranked by IQ | Progress in AI intelligence | AIs will have higher IQ scores | Advancements in AI technology |
| AIs perform better on IQ tests with “special accommodations” | Improved AI performance on IQ tests | More accurate AI scores on IQ tests | Ability to accurately perceive and interpret visual information |
| Release of Claude-3 marks a new leap in AI intelligence | Advancement in AI intelligence | Higher intelligence and capabilities in AI | Improvement in AI technology and algorithms |
| AI progress increases variance of future outcomes | Uncertain future outcomes due to AI progress | Potential for dramatic changes in society | Rapid advancement of AI technology and its impact on various aspects of life |
| Potential risks and benefits of AI progress | Uncertainty in the consequences of AI progress | Potential for both positive and negative impacts in areas such as economy, healthcare, and longevity | Mitigating risks and harnessing benefits of AI progress |