Futures

La transition démographique en Chine : de la population nombreuse à un vieillissement rapide et ses impacts économiques., (from page 20251221.)

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Keywords

Themes

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Summary

La Chine a atteint son pic de population de 1,426 milliards d’habitants en 2021 et devrait connaître une baisse continue jusqu’à 633 millions d’ici la fin du siècle. D’ici l’année prochaine, le nombre de personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus dépassera celui des enfants de 0 à 14 ans. Par conséquent, les seniors représenteront près de 47,8 % de la population d’ici 2086, dépassant ainsi la population de l’Union européenne. Cette évolution démographique impacte divers marchés, notamment celui des couches, qui devrait voir une forte augmentation de la demande pour les couches pour adultes, représentant 16 milliards de dollars par an d’ici la fin de la décennie. En parallèle, la population d’animaux domestiques devrait également augmenter, dépassant celle des jeunes enfants dans quelques années.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Population Decline China’s population peaked in 2021 and is expected to decline significantly. Shift from a growing population to a rapidly declining one, creating demographic challenges. In 10 years, China’s population will have shrunk considerably, affecting labor and economic structures. A declining birth rate and an aging population leading to fewer young workers. 5
Aging Population Aging population in China will surpass the young population by next year. Transition from more youth to more elderly, impacting social services and healthcare. By 2033, elderly will dominate demographics, reshaping economic priorities in healthcare. Longevity and lower birth rates contributing to a larger elderly demographic. 4
Adult Diaper Market Growth The market for adult diapers in China is expected to dramatically increase. From a focus on baby products to an industry shift toward adult health products. The adult diaper market could dominate, with significant economic implications for manufacturers. Aging population necessitating more adult health products, leading to market shifts. 5
Declining Birth Rates China’s declining birth rates will shrink the market for baby-related products. Shift from a baby boom demographic to an aging market with fewer babies. Fewer babies will lead to reduced sales in baby product sectors like diapers. Societal and economic factors discouraging larger families and increasing age of parenthood. 4
Increase in Pet Ownership Projected increase in the pet population, outnumbering young children by the decade’s end. Transition from children as primary focus to pets becoming more significant in families. Pets may become central to family dynamics, impacting pet care and services industries. Cultural shifts towards pets as family members amid declining child populations. 3
Market Shift in Japan and South Korea Similar trends of adult diaper market growth are seen in Japan and South Korea. Recognition of the global nature of aging populations affecting markets across Asia. Potentially, markets in Japan and South Korea may experience similar growth patterns affecting industries. Aging populations in East Asia leading to market adaptations in response to demographic changes. 4

Concerns

name description
Aging Population The rapid increase in the elderly population may result in significant economic and social challenges, such as healthcare strain and reduced workforce.
Declining Birth Rate The decrease in birth rates leading to a contraction in the youth population could impact long-term economic growth and sustainability.
Market Shift to Adult Products The transition of diaper production from infants to adults indicates a major societal shift that may affect various industries and demographics.
Pet Ownership Growth Growing pet populations compared to children may lead to changes in consumer behavior and impacts on social dynamics within families.
Economic Stress in Aging Societies As populations age, economic pressures may increase, straining pensions, healthcare, and social services.

Behaviors

name description
Aging Population Focus The shift in focus from baby products to products for the elderly as the population demographics change significantly.
Market Transition in Diapers A significant increase in the market for adult diapers, surpassing that of baby diapers due to demographic trends.
Pet Ownership Increase A rise in the population of domesticated animals, expected to outnumber young children by the end of the decade.
Global Aging Trend Countries like Japan and South Korea also experiencing a demographic shift towards an older population, indicating a broader global trend.

Technologies

name description
Adult Diapers Market The shift in focus from baby diapers to adult diapers due to an aging population, highlighting demographic changes and new market opportunities.
Pet Products Market The increasing population of domesticated animals, suggesting a growing market for pet products as they outnumber infants.

Issues

name description
Population Decline in China China’s population peaked in 2021 and is expected to decline drastically, affecting various sectors.
Aging Population The demographic shift towards an older population, with significant increases in those aged 65 and over.
Market Shift to Adult Products The shift from baby diapers to adult diapers, indicating changing consumer needs due to aging demographics.
Decrease in Birth Rate Falling fertility rates leading to a reduced number of infants, impacting markets related to children.
Increase in Pet Ownership Rising pet ownership rates in China, potentially surpassing the number of young children.
Comparative Aging Trends in Asia Similar demographic trends are emerging in Japan and South Korea, signaling regional challenges.