A nationwide shortage of public workers is causing a slow-moving crisis in states, counties, and towns across the United States. While the private sector has recovered the jobs lost during the pandemic, state and local governments are down 647,000 positions since February 2020. The decline in public workers is affecting various government functions, including education, paramedics, sanitation, and child-welfare advocacy. The shortage of public workers was not expected, given the financial support provided by Congress to state and local governments. The challenges in hiring and retaining public workers stem from factors such as the retirement of baby boomers, lower pay compared to the private sector, and the unattractiveness or stress associated with certain public-sector jobs. If these issues persist, core government functions could be at risk for years to come.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationwide shortage of public workers | Shortage of public workers | Increased strain on government services | Retirement of baby boomers and low pay for public-sector jobs |
| Private sector has recovered jobs lost during pandemic, while public sector has not | Disparity in job recovery between sectors | Continued struggle for state and local governments to hire and retain staff | Legislative budget cycles, public opposition, and slow adaptation to labor market conditions |
| Pay gap between public and private sector widening | Widening pay gap | Increased difficulty in recruiting and retaining public workers | Bureaucratic hurdles, public opposition to pay increases |
| Some public-sector jobs becoming more unpleasant or unpopular | Change in perception and desirability of certain jobs | Challenges in recruiting for public health, elections, teaching, and law enforcement roles | Public harassment or distrust |
| Staffing shortages leading to burnout and more vacancies | Staffing shortages and burnout | Increased strain on employees and core government functions | Persistent vacancies and increased workload |
| Job security and reliable hours no longer guaranteed | Decreased job security and reliable hours | Uncertainty in government jobs and potential risk to core government functions | Layoffs during pandemic and overtime to cover staff shortages |