The text discusses the potential for a prolonged period of economic prosperity, termed “ultraprosperity,” driven by demographic trends, technological advancements, financial innovations, and global openness. It envisions a future where the stock market flourishes, resulting in a significant increase in the number of millionaires and equity holders. The narrative contrasts this optimistic outlook with the fear of economic collapse, suggesting that while downturns are possible, the current signs lean towards sustained growth and improved living standards. Key implications of this prosperity include changes in consumer behavior, increased leisure time, and a shift towards valuing services over material possessions. The text emphasizes the importance of finding meaning beyond wealth and the challenges of managing a wealthier society, including labor shortages and the potential concentration of capital in the U.S. economy.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic Peak | The largest, best-educated generation is entering peak productivity years. | Shift from a smaller workforce to a larger, more educated one. | Increased consumer spending and creativity, driving economic growth globally. | A growing, educated population demanding diverse products and services. | 4 |
| Technology Rush | Rapid deployment of novel products and labor-saving technologies. | Transition from limited technological growth to widespread innovation. | New economic territories created by technology leading to job creation. | Advancements in technology generating new market opportunities. | 5 |
| Financial Revolution | Innovations in financial instruments increasing capital flow. | Shift from traditional investments to diverse financial products. | A more dynamic investment landscape with increased wealth distribution. | Emerging financial technologies transforming how capital is managed. | 5 |
| Global Openness | Expansion of democracy and open markets worldwide. | From isolated economies to interconnected global marketplaces. | Increased competition and collaboration fostering global economic growth. | Desire for improved living standards and economic opportunities. | 4 |
| Polyemployment | Workers increasingly manage multiple jobs or businesses. | From traditional single employment to multiple income sources. | A workforce characterized by diverse skills and entrepreneurial spirit. | Economic necessity driving individuals towards multiple income streams. | 4 |
| Help Wanted Forever | Persistent demand for skilled workers amidst economic growth. | From high unemployment to constant job openings in various sectors. | A robust job market with ongoing labor shortages in certain industries. | Strong economic growth creating a surge in demand for labor. | 5 |
| Extreme Affluence Shock | High demand for premium goods leading to extreme pricing. | From moderate luxury markets to extreme price competition. | Luxury goods becoming more exclusive and expensive, redefining status. | Wealth concentration driving demand for high-end products and services. | 3 |
| Prosperity Dividend | Surging economic growth leading to unprecedented government surpluses. | From national debt to potential budget surpluses for public investment. | Increased funding for social programs and public works initiatives. | Economic prosperity enabling larger government budgets for public welfare. | 4 |
| Getting Richer Younger | Younger generations accumulating wealth earlier in life. | Shift from older wealth accumulation to younger demographics gaining wealth. | A new class of young millionaires reshaping consumption and investment patterns. | Increased opportunities for young entrepreneurs and investors. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Stock market instability | The potential for sudden stock market crashes due to unmet expectations, causing widespread financial ruin. | 5 |
| Digital dependency risks | Over-reliance on digital platforms for trading which may collapse under high demand, leading to job losses. | 4 |
| Extreme income inequality | The possibility of widening wealth gaps as millions become millionaires but not all benefit equally from economic growth. | 4 |
| Environmental neglect | A risk that growth-focused prosperity may overlook environmental sustainability and lead to pollution and resource depletion. | 4 |
| Job displacement and polyemployment | The challenge of workers needing to juggle multiple jobs or businesses due to economic changes, creating instability. | 4 |
| Consumer fatigue | Rising consumerism leading to fatigue as buying and acquiring more goods becomes overwhelming. | 3 |
| Philanthropic overload | Challenges in effectively distributing wealth and fulfilling charitable goals as a surplus of wealth accumulates. | 3 |
| Global capital concentration | The risk of a significant concentration of global capital in the US, potentially stunting growth in other regions. | 5 |
| Labor shortages | The impending shortage of skilled labor may hinder the growth of new businesses in an ultra-prosperous economy. | 5 |
| Inflation of luxury markets | Rapid growth of demand for premium goods could create bubbles, leading to eventual market corrections. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Equity Majority | A majority of Americans become equity holders, increasing demand for employee ownership and boosting wealth across the population. | 5 |
| Polyemployment | Workers engage in multiple jobs or businesses simultaneously, leading to a rise in entrepreneurship and diversified income sources. | 5 |
| Extreme Affluence Shock | High demand for premium goods results in extreme prices, affecting purchasing behavior and lifestyle across classes. | 4 |
| Personal Services Boom | As wealth increases, demand for personal services like chefs and trainers grows, emphasizing time-saving solutions for the affluent. | 4 |
| Creative Philanthropy | Wealthy individuals increasingly pursue unique philanthropic endeavors as giving becomes a status symbol, complicating charitable efforts. | 4 |
| Leisure Time Expansion | Increased wealth leads to more leisure time, changing how society values and utilizes free time across generations. | 4 |
| Pure Green Prosperity | High demand for environmental quality and sustainability takes precedence as prosperity allows for investment in clean resources. | 4 |
| Help Wanted Forever | A persistent labor shortage emerges due to rapid business expansion, making skilled labor the key challenge in a prosperous economy. | 5 |
| Capital Tornado | A concentration of global capital in the US economy creates competitive dynamics globally, attracting investments to booming markets. | 5 |
| Getting Richer Younger | Younger generations accumulate wealth more quickly and differently, impacting investment and spending behaviors compared to older generations. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Technology Rush | A large deployment of novel products, labor-saving machines, and life-changing techniques transforming economic development. | 5 |
| Financial Revolution | Innovations like mutual funds, microloans, and 24-hour markets revolutionizing money flow and investments. | 5 |
| Global Openness | The spread of democracy and open markets enhancing competition and economic growth globally. | 5 |
| Polyemployment | A trend where individuals engage in multiple jobs or businesses simultaneously due to economic conditions. | 4 |
| Pure Green Technologies | Innovations aimed at reducing environmental impact and improving air and water quality. | 4 |
| Web-enabled Services | Services like Web-enabled TVs that tie consumer goods to subscription models or commitments. | 4 |
| Rich Youth Economy | Increasing wealth among younger generations leading to new economic behaviors and investment patterns. | 4 |
| Creative Philanthropy | The evolving nature of philanthropy as the wealthy seek innovative ways to give back. | 4 |
| Capital Tornado | A dynamic economic environment where capital flows rapidly into high-performing markets and startups. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Market Volatility | The potential for extreme fluctuations in financial markets due to unexpected events, leading to widespread economic disruption. | 5 |
| Inequality of Wealth Distribution | The risk of growing wealth inequality as more individuals attain millionaire status, creating social and economic divides. | 5 |
| Labor Shortages | A significant challenge in finding and retaining skilled workers amid increased demand for labor as prosperity rises. | 4 |
| Environmental Sustainability | The need for maintaining clean air and water as prosperity increases consumer demand for quality of life improvements. | 4 |
| Changing Consumer Behavior | Shifts in consumer spending from necessities to luxuries, altering market dynamics and business strategies. | 4 |
| Impact of Technology on Employment | The dual nature of technology as a job creator and destroyer, influencing future employment landscapes. | 5 |
| Global Capital Concentration | The risk of capital becoming overly concentrated in specific markets, creating economic instability in other regions. | 4 |
| Philanthropy Challenges | Rising difficulties in effectively distributing wealth through philanthropy as more individuals seek to give back. | 3 |
| Polyemployment Trends | The increasing prevalence of individuals engaging in multiple jobs or businesses, changing traditional employment structures. | 4 |
| Cultural Shifts toward Meaning | A societal move towards finding meaning beyond wealth in response to increasing affluence and materialism. | 3 |