The Atlantic Council’s Global Foresight survey reveals a pessimistic outlook for the next decade, with 60% of 288 global experts believing the world will be worse off. Key findings include expectations of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, doubts regarding China’s aggressive intentions towards Taiwan, and significant upheaval anticipated in Russia. Despite a multipolar world emerging, the United States is expected to maintain military dominance, though concerns about its diplomatic power and internal divisions arise. Confidence in the United Nations is notably low, with only 2% believing it will fulfill its core functions. The survey highlights climate change as the greatest threat to prosperity, while concerns over social media toxicity and the impact of artificial intelligence vary by age group. Overall, the survey reflects a consensus of anxiety about the future, regardless of demographic factors.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalization of Relations in the Middle East | Increasing likelihood of Israel normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and a Palestinian state by 2034. | Shift from conflict to potential diplomatic recognition and cooperation in the Middle East. | By 2034, Israel might have established diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and a Palestinian state. | Underlying geopolitical interests and economic benefits driving peace agreements despite ongoing violence. | 4 |
| Skepticism About China’s Intentions | Decreasing confidence in China’s likelihood to forcibly seize Taiwan within the next decade. | Shift from expectation of aggressive reunification to a more cautious assessment of China’s military intentions. | China’s approach to Taiwan may evolve towards diplomatic rather than military solutions by 2034. | China’s internal challenges and international scrutiny may limit aggressive military actions. | 4 |
| Potential Upheaval in Russia | Expectations of significant political turmoil and potential breakup of Russia within the next decade. | Transition from a stable regime under Putin to possible internal conflict and fragmentation. | By 2034, Russia could face political fragmentation and instability, affecting global geopolitics. | Ageing leadership, economic troubles, and public dissent contributing to potential regime change. | 5 |
| Decline of US Diplomatic Influence | Growing perception that the US will struggle to maintain its diplomatic power by 2034. | Shift from US diplomatic dominance to a more multipolar world with less influence. | By 2034, the US may not be seen as the leading diplomatic power, impacting global governance. | Rising global challenges and competition reducing US leverage in diplomatic negotiations. | 4 |
| Global Nuclear Proliferation Concerns | Expectation of increased nuclear proliferation and potential use of nuclear weapons by non-state actors. | From a relatively controlled nuclear landscape to a more chaotic and dangerous proliferation environment. | By 2034, the world could see more nuclear-armed states and increased risks of nuclear terrorism. | Geopolitical instability and breakdown of arms control agreements fueling nuclear ambitions. | 5 |
| Pessimism About Global Affairs | Overall expert sentiment indicating a belief that the world will be worse off in the next decade. | Shift from optimism to widespread pessimism regarding global stability and prosperity. | By 2034, the global landscape may be characterized by increased tensions and conflicts. | Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, economic instability, and environmental challenges driving concerns. | 5 |
| Deterioration of Social Media Influence | Growing consensus that social media will negatively impact global affairs over the next decade. | Shift from neutral to negative views on social media’s role in shaping public discourse and policy. | By 2034, social media may be viewed as a destabilizing force in global politics and society. | Increased polarization and misinformation resulting from social media dynamics. | 4 |
| Generational Divide in Technology Perception | Younger respondents are more concerned about the negative impacts of AI compared to older respondents. | Shift in perception from optimism about technology to caution and concern among younger generations. | By 2034, societal attitudes towards AI may be more critical, focusing on ethical governance and risks. | Younger generations’ experiences with technology highlighting potential dangers and job displacement. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Instability | Competition among power centers, uncertain future leadership in Russia, and potential conflict with NATO raise concerns about global stability. | 5 |
| Nuclear Proliferation | The expectation that more states, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, will acquire nuclear weapons poses severe global security risks. | 5 |
| Inadequate Global Governance | Weakening of international institutions like the UN may hinder effective response to global challenges such as climate change. | 4 |
| Rise of Authoritarianism | Increasing global political instability could re-energize authoritarian regimes, impacting democratic governance worldwide. | 4 |
| Environmental Crisis | Persistent doubts about the ability to combat climate change effectively threaten future global prosperity. | 5 |
| Social Media Toxicity | The deteriorating nature of social media could exacerbate societal divisions and misinformation, complicating political discourse. | 4 |
| Domestic Political Fragmentation in the U.S. | Risks of internal division could undermine the U.S. position as a global leader, with potential for civil unrest. | 4 |
| AI Safety and Regulation | Concerns about AI impacting global affairs, particularly among younger demographics, indicate a need for governance. | 3 |
| Emerging Nuclear Terrorism Threats | Growing belief that terrorist groups might utilize nuclear weapons raises dire safety concerns. | 5 |
| Disparity in Global Perspectives on Power | Diverse views on U.S. and global power dynamics could lead to misalignment in international relations and strategy. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty | Experts predict a rise in competing global power centers, leading to instability, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe. | 5 |
| Skepticism towards Military Actions | There is a growing doubt about China’s willingness to forcibly reunify with Taiwan, indicating a shift in perceptions regarding military aggression. | 4 |
| Transformation of Global Alliances | Anticipation of new diplomatic relations, such as between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and potential shifts in alliances in response to geopolitical events. | 5 |
| Emerging Nuclear Threats | Experts foresee a new nuclear age characterized by increased proliferation and the potential for nuclear terrorism, highlighting diminishing international governance. | 5 |
| Declining Confidence in Multilateral Institutions | A significant lack of faith in the United Nations and other international organizations to effectively manage global challenges. | 5 |
| Concern Over Social Media and AI Dynamics | Growing negativity towards social media, contrasted with a more positive outlook on AI, particularly among different age demographics. | 4 |
| Climate Change as a Central Concern | Acknowledgment that climate change poses the greatest threat to global prosperity, with expectations of increased international cooperation to address it. | 5 |
| Diverging Views on Domestic Stability | Concerns about potential internal disintegration or civil unrest in major powers, including the United States and Russia, indicating a rising awareness of domestic vulnerabilities. | 4 |
| Shift in Technology Governance Concerns | Younger generations express more concern about the governance of technology, particularly AI, compared to older respondents. | 4 |
| Pessimism About the Future | A prevailing sentiment among experts that the world will be worse off in the next decade, regardless of demographic factors. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence (AI) | The increasing role of AI in global affairs is seen as having potential benefits despite concerns about its impact on society. | 4 |
| Geoengineering | Deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to combat climate change is anticipated to begin by 2034. | 4 |
| Nuclear Proliferation | The anticipated spread of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states, with a focus on geopolitical competition and reduced arms control. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Multipolar World Dynamics | The shift from unipolarity to multipolarity, with multiple power centers emerging, impacting global relations and alliances. | 5 |
| Nuclear Proliferation and Governance | An ungoverned nuclear age with increased proliferation risks, including potential nuclear terrorism and the emergence of new nuclear states. | 5 |
| Geopolitical Instability in Russia | Anticipation of upheaval and potential conflict in Russia post-Putin, with implications for global security and NATO relations. | 4 |
| Climate Change as a Central Threat | Climate change identified as the greatest threat to global prosperity, with a call for increased international cooperation to address it. | 5 |
| Social Media and AI Impact | Diverging perceptions of social media negativity versus optimism about AI’s potential effects, indicating generational divides in technology views. | 4 |
| Doubts in UN Effectiveness | Growing skepticism about the UN’s ability to address global challenges effectively amidst rising multipolarity. | 4 |
| US Domestic Political Instability | Concerns over potential internal disintegration or civil unrest in the US, impacting its global standing and influence. | 4 |
| Middle East Relations and Peace Prospects | Potential normalization of relations between Israel and Arab nations, and a renewed focus on a two-state solution for Palestine. | 4 |
| China’s Global Role and Taiwan Tensions | Evolving views on China’s intentions regarding Taiwan and its role in a potentially bipolar world amid US-China tensions. | 4 |