Futures

Taliban’s Internet Shutdown in Afghanistan: A Move to Silence Dissent and Control Citizens, (from page 20251026.)

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Summary

On September 29, 2025, the Taliban in Afghanistan implemented a total internet shutdown, citing reasons of “preventing immorality.” This move has effectively silenced dissent and restricted communications among citizens, rendering VPNs useless due to lack of internet connectivity. The shutdown has resulted in a national communication blackout, severely affecting Afghan citizens’ access to essential services and limiting their ability to connect with loved ones. As satellite internet and foreign SIM cards emerge as alternative options, these also pose challenges due to cost and Taliban retaliation concerns. Experts believe this action follows a larger authoritarian trend of using internet restrictions to control information and suppress human rights, highlighting the profound impact on citizens’ lives and rights, particularly for women, journalists, and marginalized communities.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Total Internet Blackout in Afghanistan A nationwide shutdown of all internet services, affecting citizens’ communication. Shift from restricted internet access to a total blackout, impacting lives significantly. In ten years, similar blackouts may become a common tool for authoritarian regimes to control societies. Increasing authoritarian control over information and communication by governments worldwide. 5
Normalization of Internet Shutdowns Governments increasingly using internet blackouts as a strategy to suppress dissent and maintain control. Change from sporadic internet restrictions to a standard tactic for authoritarian regimes. Governments may routinely shut down the internet to manage public unrest and prevent information flow. Political motivations driving governments to limit access to information during crises. 4
Shift to Satellite Internet Services People turning to satellite internet like Starlink as traditional access methods are restricted. Transition from traditional internet infrastructure to satellite services due to restrictions. Increased reliance on satellite communication could reshape global internet access and competition. Need for reliable communication methods in regions experiencing control over internet access. 3
Use of Foreign SIM Cards and Satellite Phones Citizens resorting to foreign SIM cards and satellite phones during internet blackouts. Shift from domestic internet services to reliance on foreign solutions amid restriction. Greater dependency on foreign technology for communication in authoritarian regions. Desperation for communication alternatives driving citizens to risky options. 3
Impact on Marginalized Communities Heightened challenges posed by internet blackouts on women and marginalized groups in Afghanistan. Change from existing challenges to exacerbated inequalities during blackouts. Continued restrictions may further push marginalized groups out of public life and discussion. Social inequalities highlighted and worsened by governmental policies restricting communications. 4

Concerns

name description
Digital Communication Blackout The complete loss of internet and communication services leading to isolation and lack of information access for Afghans.
Government Control Over Information Increased government control over information flow to silence dissent and prevent public scrutiny of human rights abuses.
Impact on Basic Services Severe disruption to access essential services like education, health, and employment due to the internet shutdown.
Rights Violations Against Marginalized Groups Particularly affects marginalized communities, including women and journalists, exacerbating their societal exclusion.
International Response Inadequate Insufficient international support and intervention in response to severe human rights violations by the Taliban.
Normalization of Internet Shutdowns Increased trend of governments using internet shutdowns as a political tool, undermining human rights globally.
Economic Barriers to Alternative Connectivity High costs and limited availability of alternative internet access methods, such as satellite connectivity, preventing citizens from connecting.
Fear of Retaliation Fear among citizens regarding potential government retaliation for seeking alternative communication methods, adding a layer of risk.

Behaviors

name description
Digital Dark Age A total internet shutdown leading to severe communication restrictions, isolating citizens from global information and support.
Alternative Connectivity Solutions In response to internet blackouts, citizens seek satellite internet and foreign SIM cards despite risks and costs to maintain communication.
Heightened Fear and Panic The inability to communicate escalates fear and panic among citizens, particularly regarding their loved ones and basic needs.
Normalizing Internet Shutdowns Governments increasingly use internet shutdowns as a method to silence dissent and control information flow, seen as a trend among authoritarian regimes.
Resistance and Defiance,  
Community Demand for Rights Advocacy Calls for international intervention and support from human rights groups to counter government-imposed internet restrictions.

Technologies

name description
Satellite Internet Uses satellite technology to provide internet access, often in areas affected by restrictions or blackouts.
Foreign SIM Cards SIM cards from other countries that allow users to bypass local restrictions and maintain communication.
Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) Tools that disguise a user’s IP address to access blocked content, though ineffective during complete internet shutdowns.
Satellite Phones Mobile phones that connect to satellites for communication, useful in areas without traditional telecommunications.

Issues

name description
Internet Shutdowns as Political Control The normalizing of internet shutdowns by authoritarian governments to suppress dissent and control information flow.
Impact on Human Rights The consequence of internet blackouts on human rights, particularly for vulnerable groups such as women and journalists.
Digital Divide in Crisis Situations The growing gap in access to communication technologies, particularly satellite internet and foreign SIM cards, during crises like the Taliban’s internet blackout.
Retaliation Against Internet Users The potential risks and consequences faced by individuals who attempt to circumvent government-imposed internet restrictions.
International Response to Authoritarianism The need for increased international support and intervention in response to human rights violations following internet shutdowns.