The text discusses the process of organ transplantation, focusing on kidney transplants. It highlights the high demand for organs, particularly kidneys, and the challenges faced by those on the waiting list. The text explores recent medical advances that have made previously unusable organs viable for transplantation. It also delves into the concept of xenotransplantation, where organs from genetically modified pigs are transplanted into humans. The ethical concerns surrounding xenotransplantation are examined, as well as the potential for it to alleviate the organ shortage. The text concludes by emphasizing the need for improvements in the current organ transplant system.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Increase in demand for organ transplants | From insufficient supply to meeting demand | More available organs, improved distribution | Limited supply and logistical challenges |
| Advancements in xenotransplantation | Transplanting organs from genetically modified pigs | More successful and widely used xenotransplants | Desire to address shortage of organs and improve transplant system |
| Use of deceased donors and living donors | Increase in deceased donors, limited increase in living-donor transplants | More deceased donors, limited increase in living-donor transplants | Limited availability and compatibility of living donors |
| Increase in transplants from opioid overdose victims | More transplants from opioid overdose victims | Increased number of transplants from opioid overdose victims | Opioid epidemic and advances in treating related infections |
| Development of technology to preserve and improve organ quality | Longer viability of organs outside the body, improved organ quality | Longer viability and improved quality of organs | Advancements in technology and medical treatments |
| Exploration of animal organ transplantation | Transplanting organs from animals bred for this purpose | Increased availability of organs from animals | Increase in demand for organs and ethical considerations |
| Advancements in organ transplant procedures | Development of new procedures and techniques | Improved transplant procedures and techniques | Desire to improve success rates of transplants |
| Modernization of transplant system | Transition from UNOS monopoly to a more competitive system | Increased competition and efficiency in organ distribution | Flaws in current system and desire for improvement |