In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, drones have been observed penetrating deep into Russian territory and destroying critical infrastructure with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI). The development of lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs), including AI-equipped drones, is increasing, and nations like the US are investing billions in such programs. The emergence of AI on the battlefield has sparked debates regarding its accuracy and potential reduction of collateral damage, as well as concerns about the ability of machines to make life-and-death decisions. The United Nations has recently added LAWs to its agenda, aiming to establish a ban on weapons that operate without human oversight by 2026. However, defining LAWs, agreeing on regulations, and enforcing them pose significant challenges. The discussions at the UN General Assembly in September will address these issues and potentially lead to the establishment of a treaty on the use of AI weapons.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Increasing use of AI in autonomous weapons | Use of AI in autonomous weapons | More advanced and sophisticated AI weapons on the battlefield | Advancements in AI technology and military capabilities |
| UN taking steps to ban weapons without human oversight | Potential ban on autonomous weapons | International regulations and restrictions on the use of autonomous weapons | Concerns over ethical implications and potential for misuse |
| Lack of consensus and definitions for autonomous weapons | Need for clear definitions and regulations | Established definitions and guidelines for autonomous weapons | Need for international consensus and agreement on the use of autonomous weapons |
| Debate around the ethics and accountability of autonomous weapons | Ethical considerations and accountability | Increased understanding and debate on the role of humans in autonomous weapon decision-making | Concerns over accountability and responsibility in autonomous systems |
| Challenges in enforcing bans and regulating autonomous weapons | Need for effective enforcement and verification mechanisms | Improved methods for verification and inspection of autonomous weapon systems | Development of new strategies and technologies for arms control |
| Emergence of AI advancements in warfare beyond autonomous weapons | AI’s role in different aspects of warfare | Increased use of AI in target selection and defense systems | Recognition of AI’s potential for improving military capabilities |