Dave Bengston, an environmental futurist, emphasizes the profound and far-reaching impacts of climate change, coining it ‘everything change.’ He argues that while direct effects like severe weather are evident, the cascading indirect impacts—such as civil unrest, human trafficking, inflation, housing inequality, and even educational challenges—are often overlooked. Examples include the Syrian Civil War fueled by drought, increased human trafficking in climate-affected regions, and hotter classrooms hindering student learning. Bengston calls for organizations to anticipate these changes using the futures wheel method and stresses the importance of resilience in infrastructure and personal lives. He urges a shift in perspective to acknowledge the extensive consequences of climate change for the sake of future generations.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascading Consequences of Climate Change | Climate change impacts are triggering indirect effects that disrupt multiple societal systems. | Transitioning from viewing climate change as direct impacts to recognizing its complex indirect consequences. | In ten years, society may face pervasive instability due to climate-induced cascading effects on various systems. | The urgent need to address climate change and its far-reaching, unexpected impacts on human life. | 5 |
| Increased Human Trafficking | Rising poverty due to climate change is creating opportunities for human traffickers. | Shift from localized poverty to global human trafficking networks driven by climate crises. | In a decade, human trafficking could become a major global issue linked to climate-induced poverty. | The increasing desperation among vulnerable populations affected by climate change. | 4 |
| Housing Inequality from Climate Disasters | Climate change is exacerbating housing inequality through gentrification and rising costs. | Moving from affordable housing to a market dominated by high-cost, post-disaster construction. | In ten years, housing markets may be accessible only to the wealthy, deepening societal divides. | The need for housing in areas affected by climate disasters drives up prices and inequality. | 5 |
| Health Risks from Evolving Fungi | Fungi may adapt to higher temperatures, posing new health risks to humans. | Shifting from fungal infections being rare to potentially becoming common health threats. | In a decade, fungal infections might rise significantly, challenging healthcare systems. | The warming climate allows fungi to evolve and thrive in human environments. | 4 |
| Educational Disparities from Heat Waves | Rising temperatures are affecting learning environments, particularly in low-income areas. | Transitioning from equitable education to increased disparities due to climate extremes. | In ten years, educational outcomes may be significantly worse for students in vulnerable communities. | Inequitable access to climate-resilient infrastructure exacerbates educational challenges. | 5 |
| Climate Change-Induced Global Inflation | Climate change is contributing to rising global inflation rates, affecting food prices. | Shift from stable prices to increasing inflation driven by climate impacts on agriculture. | In a decade, the global economy may face persistent inflation challenges linked to climate change. | The economic impact of climate change on food production and supply chains is profound. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Civil War and Political Instability | The impact of climate change on resources can lead to civil conflicts and political turmoil, evidenced by the Syrian Civil War. | 5 |
| Human Trafficking Increase | Climate-induced poverty and displacement create opportunities for human traffickers, especially affecting vulnerable populations. | 4 |
| Global Inflation | Climate change could drive up global inflation rates, disproportionately affecting poorer regions and increasing inequality. | 4 |
| Housing Inequality | Climate disasters reduce housing availability and increase costs, exacerbating inequalities as low-income residents are priced out. | 4 |
| Pathogenic Fungal Infections | Warmer temperatures may lead to the evolution of fungi that can become serious human health threats. | 5 |
| Educational Disparities from Heat Waves | Increased heat waves disproportionately affect low-income students’ learning environments, widening educational inequality. | 4 |
| Fragile Democratic Institutions | Climate change may undermine democracy by increasing social instability and public distrust in government responses. | 4 |
| Unpredictable Side Effects of Climate Change | Many unexpected consequences of climate change may emerge, impacting diverse aspects of life, like sports and leisure. | 3 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Recognition of cascading consequences | People are beginning to understand that climate change affects nearly every aspect of life, not just direct impacts. | 5 |
| Increased anticipation of change | Organizations are utilizing methods like the futures wheel to anticipate direct and indirect consequences of climate change. | 4 |
| Resilience building | There is a growing recognition of the need to build resilience into systems to absorb unforeseen impacts from climate change. | 5 |
| Awareness of climate-induced social issues | An understanding is emerging that climate change contributes to social issues like human trafficking and housing inequality. | 4 |
| Adaptation of organisms to climate change | Recognition that fungi and other organisms are evolving due to climate change, posing new health risks to humans. | 3 |
| Changing educational environments | Heat waves affecting classrooms are leading to a focus on equitable educational conditions and learning environments. | 4 |
| Broader perception of climate change | A shift from viewing climate change as a singular issue to understanding it as ‘everything change’ that impacts all aspects of life. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Futures Wheel | A structured group process to identify and score the significance of direct and indirect implications of change. | 4 |
| Resilience Building | The capacity of systems to absorb unanticipated and unforeseeable impacts of disturbance, relevant in climate change adaptation. | 5 |
| Climate Change Impact Analysis | Research methods to assess the broad threats posed by climate change to human systems, infrastructure, and security. | 5 |
| Adaptive Fungal Pathogen Research | Studies on how fungi are evolving due to climate change and their potential threat to human health. | 3 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Indirect Impacts of Climate Change | The indirect effects of climate change are becoming more significant and potentially more devastating than direct impacts, affecting various societal aspects. | 5 |
| Human Trafficking Surge | Increased human trafficking is linked to climate change-induced poverty and displacement, particularly in vulnerable regions. | 4 |
| Global Inflation Increase | Climate change is projected to contribute significantly to global inflation rates, impacting food prices disproportionately in developing regions. | 4 |
| Housing Inequality | Climate change is exacerbating housing inequality through gentrification and increased costs post-disasters, affecting low and middle-income populations. | 4 |
| Evolving Fungal Pathogens | Warmer temperatures may allow fungi to adapt and become more dangerous to human health, leading to an increase in fungal infections. | 4 |
| Educational Disparities from Heat | Increased temperatures are affecting classroom environments, particularly in low-income areas, leading to educational inequities. | 4 |
| Social Instability and Democracy Erosion | Climate change may drive social instability, potentially undermining democratic structures and governance. | 5 |
| Resilience Building Needs | There is a growing need to incorporate resilience into systems to prepare for unpredictable climate impacts. | 4 |
| Recognition of ‘Everything Change’ | A shift in perspective from climate change to ‘everything change’ is necessary to fully grasp the scope of impacts. | 3 |