Cocoa prices have surged to over $10,000 per tonne due to bad weather and disease outbreaks affecting production in West Africa, which produces nearly two-thirds of the world’s cocoa. El Niño conditions have led to drought and extreme rainfall, resulting in diseases like Black pod and Swollen shoot virus that threaten yields. Farmers face additional challenges from illegal mining on cocoa lands and low income, preventing them from investing in pest management. Despite high global prices, West African farmers receive fixed lower prices, limiting their potential earnings. Future cocoa production may diversify into South America and Asia, but without fair compensation, West African farmers might struggle to adapt to ongoing challenges, including upcoming EU regulations on deforestation.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa Price Surge | Cocoa prices have surged to over $10,000 per tonne, nearly twice the historic record. | Cocoa prices are rapidly increasing, affecting both farmers and global markets. | In 10 years, cocoa prices may stabilize or continue to rise, impacting chocolate costs and availability. | The surge is driven by bad weather, diseases, and market volatility exacerbated by climate change. | 4 |
| Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture | Climate change is intensifying weather patterns affecting cocoa production in West Africa. | Agricultural production is shifting due to more extreme weather conditions and crop diseases. | In a decade, agricultural practices may have to adapt significantly to cope with climate change impacts. | The driving force is the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related events affecting crops. | 5 |
| Diseases Affecting Cocoa Production | Black pod disease and Swollen shoot virus are severely impacting cocoa yields in West Africa. | The prevalence of diseases is rising, leading to significant losses in cocoa production. | In 10 years, cocoa production may decline further if disease management strategies are not improved. | The lack of access to effective treatments and management options is a key challenge for farmers. | 5 |
| Diversification of Cocoa Production Regions | There is a potential shift towards cocoa production in South America and Asia due to West Africa’s challenges. | Cocoa production may diversify from West Africa to other regions in response to local challenges. | In 10 years, South America and Asia could emerge as dominant cocoa producers, changing market dynamics. | The need for a more resilient global cocoa supply chain is pushing this diversification. | 4 |
| Deforestation-free Regulation Impact | The EU’s new regulation could complicate cocoa exports from West Africa due to deforestation concerns. | Regulatory pressures are increasing, impacting how cocoa is sourced and traded. | In the next decade, compliance with environmental regulations might reshape cocoa supply chains significantly. | Environmental sustainability is becoming a crucial factor in agricultural trade policies. | 4 |
| Economic Viability of Cocoa Farming | Many cocoa farmers live below the poverty line, limiting their ability to invest in their farms. | The economic conditions for cocoa farmers are deteriorating, impacting their livelihoods and production capabilities. | In 10 years, without intervention, the viability of cocoa farming in West Africa could be severely threatened. | Low income for farmers is driving a need for fairer trade practices and better market access. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Climate Change Impact on Cocoa Production | Climate change intensifies weather anomalies affecting cocoa yield, risking food security and economic stability in West African cocoa farming communities. | 5 |
| Disease Outbreaks in Cocoa Plants | Outbreaks of diseases like ‘Black pod disease’ and ‘Swollen shoot virus’ threaten cocoa yields and farmer livelihoods, complicating cocoa supply chains. | 5 |
| Land Use Conflict due to Mining | Illegal mining encroaches on cocoa land, pushing farmers out and causing economic instability due to reduced agricultural land. | 4 |
| Economic Viability of Cocoa Farming | Farmers earn insufficient income to invest in crop health and management, leading to chronic issues in cocoa productivity and sustainability. | 5 |
| Global Cocoa Supply Vulnerability | Concentration of cocoa production in West Africa makes it susceptible to climate and economic shocks, threatening global cocoa supply. | 4 |
| Regulatory Challenges with EUDR | New EU regulations on deforestation could complicate supply chains and increase costs for West African cocoa farmers, affecting their profitability. | 4 |
| Price Disparity for Cocoa Farmers | Despite rising cocoa prices, farmers are locked into lower fixed prices, limiting their ability to cope with financial pressures and invest in sustainable practices. | 5 |
| Inequities in Market Access | Small-scale farmers face disadvantages compared to those in more open markets, sidelining them in a globally rising cocoa price scenario. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Increased cocoa price volatility | The cocoa market is experiencing heightened price fluctuations due to extreme weather and financial market dynamics, impacting farmer incomes. | 5 |
| Shift to alternative land uses | Cocoa farmers are increasingly pressured to sell land for mining due to low incomes, leading to a decline in cocoa production areas. | 4 |
| Desire for fair trade practices | There’s a growing demand for fairer trade agreements to ensure cocoa farmers receive a larger share of profits from their crops. | 5 |
| Investment in resilient farming practices | Farmers are beginning to seek investments in more resilient crops and pest management solutions to combat diseases affecting cocoa yields. | 4 |
| Global diversification of cocoa production | Emerging markets in South America and Asia are expected to increase cocoa production, reducing dependence on West African sources. | 5 |
| Regulatory impacts on cocoa exports | New regulations, like the EU’s Deforestation-free Regulation, may complicate cocoa exports for West African farmers, adding costs and requirements. | 4 |
| Increased awareness of cocoa supply chains | Consumers and stakeholders are becoming more aware of the complexities and challenges within cocoa supply chains, pushing for transparency. | 5 |
| Long-term contracts in cocoa trading | Large cocoa consumers are likely utilizing long-term contracts to buffer against market volatility, impacting small producers more significantly. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Climate-Resilient Cocoa Farming | Developing farming techniques and crop varieties that can withstand extreme weather and diseases exacerbated by climate change. | 5 |
| Disease Management Innovations | New methods or technologies to diagnose and manage cocoa diseases such as Black pod disease and Swollen shoot virus. | 4 |
| Sustainable Cocoa Sourcing Practices | Establishing fair trade agreements and sustainable practices to ensure farmers receive adequate compensation and support. | 5 |
| Deforestation Monitoring Technologies | Advanced tracking systems to monitor and verify deforestation-free cocoa production as per regulations like the EU Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR). | 4 |
| Diversification of Cocoa Production Regions | Encouraging cocoa cultivation in new regions to reduce dependency on West Africa and mitigate risks from local climate impacts. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Cocoa Price Volatility | The dramatic spike in cocoa prices driven by weather, diseases, and financial market dynamics could lead to instability in cocoa supply chains. | 4 |
| Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture | Increasingly severe weather patterns and disease outbreaks due to climate change threaten cocoa production, particularly in vulnerable regions like West Africa. | 5 |
| Diseases Affecting Cocoa Yield | Outbreaks of diseases like Black pod disease and Swollen shoot virus are significantly reducing cocoa yields, posing long-term threats to production. | 5 |
| Land Use Conflicts | Illegal mining is encroaching on cocoa farmland, forcing farmers to sell land and exacerbating poverty and land tenure issues. | 4 |
| Income Inequality in Cocoa Farming | Low and unstable incomes for cocoa farmers prevent investment in better farming practices, affecting sustainability and productivity. | 5 |
| Regulatory Challenges in Cocoa Exports | New regulations, such as the EU’s Deforestation-free Regulation, could complicate cocoa exports from West Africa, impacting farmers’ livelihoods. | 4 |
| Market Dynamics and Farmer Profitability | Fixed pricing systems in Ghana and Ivory Coast prevent farmers from capitalizing on global price spikes, leading to disparities in income. | 5 |
| Diversification of Cocoa Production Regions | The potential shift in cocoa production towards South America and Asia could change global supply dynamics and reduce reliance on West Africa. | 4 |