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Record Global Temperatures Expected in Next Five Years, Warns World Meteorological Organization, (from page 20230528.)

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Summary

A new analysis by the World Meteorological Organization predicts that global temperatures will reach record highs in the next five years due to human-caused warming and the El Niño climate pattern. There is a 98% chance that at least one of these years will surpass the current record set in 2016, with the average temperature from 2023 to 2027 likely being the warmest five-year period on record. The rise in temperatures poses serious risks to health, food security, and the environment, exacerbating issues like heat waves and droughts. Despite a goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, nations’ delays in reducing fossil fuel emissions suggest this threshold may be exceeded by the early 2030s. El Niño conditions are expected to return, further increasing temperatures alongside rising greenhouse gas levels.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Increased Frequency of Record Heat Global temperatures are likely to exceed past records in the next five years. From occasional record heat to a high probability of breaking temperature records annually. More frequent and intense heatwaves impacting health and agriculture globally. Rising greenhouse gas emissions and climate patterns like El Niño are accelerating temperature increases. 5
Shifts in Precipitation Patterns El Niño expected to alter rainfall distribution globally over the next five years. From stable precipitation patterns to unpredictable and extreme rainfall variations. Agricultural practices will need to adapt to new rainfall patterns, impacting food security. El Niño’s influence on global weather systems is driving these changes in precipitation. 4
Delayed Climate Action Nations are lagging in making necessary changes to meet climate goals. From proactive climate policies to delayed responses, risking exceeding temperature thresholds. Countries will face increased climate-related disasters due to insufficient action on emissions. Political and economic challenges are hindering significant climate action despite urgent warnings. 5
Risk of Exceeding 1.5 Degrees Celsius Two-thirds chance of breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold in the next five years. From ambitious climate goals to a high likelihood of exceeding crucial temperature limits. Global ecosystems and human societies will face severe stresses if the threshold is crossed. Accumulated greenhouse gas emissions are pushing global temperatures closer to dangerous levels. 5
Health Risks from Heat Waves Elevated global temperatures contribute to increased health risks from heat waves. From manageable heat-related health issues to a public health crisis due to extreme temperatures. Healthcare systems may struggle to cope with increased heat-related illnesses and fatalities. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are directly impacting public health. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Health Risks from Heatwaves Rising global temperatures increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves, posing significant health risks to populations. 5
Food Security Threats Record heat and shifting precipitation patterns may lead to reduced agricultural yields and food shortages. 5
Water Management Challenges Increased temperatures and altered rainfall patterns complicate water resource management, leading to potential shortages. 4
Environmental Degradation Higher temperatures and extreme weather events can exacerbate environmental issues, affecting biodiversity and ecosystems. 4
Exceeding Climate Goals Delays in emissions reduction efforts may result in surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement. 5
Natural Variability Misinterpretation Misunderstanding fluctuations caused by natural factors like El Niño may hinder effective climate action and response. 3
Increased Wildfires Higher temperatures and drier conditions lead to heightened risk of wildfires, damaging communities and ecosystems. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Increased Climate Preparedness Communities and governments are ramping up efforts to prepare for extreme weather events and climate-related challenges. 5
Shift in Agricultural Practices Farmers are adapting their practices due to changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures, affecting food security. 4
Focus on Sustainable Energy Solutions A push towards renewable energy sources as nations realize the urgency of cutting fossil fuel emissions. 5
Heightened Public Awareness of Climate Risks Growing public concern and awareness regarding the impacts of climate change on health and safety. 4
Policy Changes for Climate Mitigation Governments are being pressured to enact stricter policies and regulations to mitigate climate change effects. 5
Innovative Water Management Strategies New strategies are being developed to manage water resources effectively in response to altered rainfall patterns. 4
Increased Research on Climate Variability A surge in scientific research focused on understanding climate variability and its implications for future weather patterns. 3
Global Collaboration on Climate Agreements Nations are increasingly recognizing the need for collaborative efforts to meet climate targets and agreements. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Climate Resilient Agriculture Innovative agricultural practices aimed at adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change on food security. 5
Advanced Water Management Systems Technologies focused on optimizing water usage and management in response to changing precipitation patterns due to climate change. 4
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Technologies that capture carbon dioxide emissions from sources like power plants and store it underground to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases. 5
Renewable Energy Technologies Innovations in solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 5
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Systems Advanced systems for monitoring climate patterns and predicting changes, which can inform policy and adaptation strategies. 4
Sustainable Urban Planning Designing urban environments that are resilient to climate impacts, including heat waves and flooding. 4

Issues

name description relevancy
Record High Temperatures Global temperatures are projected to reach unprecedented levels in the coming years due to human-caused warming and El Niño effects. 5
Health Risks from Heat Waves Increased temperatures are likely to exacerbate health risks, leading to more severe heat waves and related health crises. 5
Food Security Challenges Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns threaten global food security, particularly in vulnerable regions. 5
Water Management Issues Altered rainfall patterns due to climate change may lead to significant challenges in water management globally. 4
Exceeding 1.5 Degrees Celsius Target The likelihood of exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree Celsius target is increasing, raising concerns for climate action. 5
Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events Higher global temperatures are likely to lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as wildfires and droughts. 5
Global Climate Policy Delays Delays in implementing necessary climate policies may hinder efforts to mitigate climate change and its impacts. 4
Impact of El Niño on Global Weather Patterns The return of El Niño conditions is expected to disrupt global weather patterns, affecting various regions differently. 4