Global temperatures are predicted to reach record highs in the next five years due to human-caused warming and the El Niño climate pattern, according to the World Meteorological Organization. There is a high probability that at least one of the next five years will surpass the record set in 2016. This temperature increase will have significant consequences for health, food security, water management, and the environment. Even small increases in temperature can worsen the impacts of heat waves, wildfires, and droughts. The presence of El Niño conditions can further disrupt global precipitation patterns, leading to increased summer rainfall in some regions and reduced rainfall in others. It is likely that one of the next five years will be 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than the 19th-century average. Although the Paris climate agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is probable that this threshold will be exceeded by the early 2030s due to the delay in taking necessary actions to reduce fossil-fuel emissions. The return of El Niño conditions later this summer, combined with rising greenhouse gas levels, will contribute to the acceleration of global temperatures to new highs.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global temperatures likely to soar to record highs | From current temperatures to record-breaking highs | Increased heat-related risks and environmental impacts | Human-caused warming and El Niño climate pattern |
| Small increases in warming exacerbate dangers | Increased risks from heat waves, wildfires, and drought | Heightened risks and impacts of climate-related events | Rising global temperatures and climate variability |
| El Niño conditions can cause shifts in precipitation patterns | Changes in rainfall distribution globally | Altered rainfall patterns in specific regions | El Niño climate pattern and its influence on precipitation |
| Possibility of exceeding the Paris Agreement temperature goal | Potential to surpass 1.5-degree Celsius threshold | Delayed action on emissions reduction | Inadequate efforts to cut fossil-fuel emissions |
| El Niño conditions expected to return | Return of El Niño climate pattern | Accelerated temperature increase | Combination of El Niño and rising greenhouse gas levels |