Futures

Exploring Alternative Futures for Land Use in Oregon: A Collaborative Initiative by IFTF and 1000 Friends of Oregon, (from page 20250223.)

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Summary

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) and 1000 Friends of Oregon have collaborated to produce a series of short films that present four alternative visions for the future of land use in Oregon. These films aim to spark discussions about the challenges facing Oregon, such as climate change, housing demand, and economic disparities, while encouraging strategic planning and foresight. Each of the four scenarios for 2035—INSATIABLE, SCRATCH, PRUNING, and LIMINAL—explores different potential futures, emphasizing the importance of land use decisions in shaping a sustainable and equitable future for both the people and ecosystems of Oregon. The initiative seeks to empower Oregonians to navigate uncertainties and plan for a better tomorrow.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Collaborative Foresight Collaboration among diverse stakeholders to envision future scenarios for land use in Oregon. Shift from isolated planning to inclusive, collaborative foresight in land use decisions. In 10 years, communities will engage in ongoing collaborative foresight to shape sustainable policies. The need for resilience in the face of climate change and socioeconomic pressures drives collaboration. 4
Alternative Futures Exploration Exploration of four distinct future scenarios for Oregon’s land use policies. Transition from static land use policies to dynamic, scenario-based planning. Future land use decisions will be informed by an understanding of various plausible scenarios. Growing uncertainties in climate and social dynamics necessitate flexible planning approaches. 5
Technological Breakthroughs Potential for technological advancements to redefine land use and community structure. Shift from traditional land use practices to tech-driven solutions for urban and rural planning. In 10 years, technology will play a central role in the design and management of communities. Innovations in technology and data analytics drive new possibilities for land use. 4
Climate-Driven Migration Increasing pressures of climate change leading to migration and demographic shifts. Change from stable populations to dynamic, shifting demographics due to climate factors. Oregon will see evolving community structures and policies to address migration challenges. The urgency of climate impacts forces a reconsideration of land use and community planning. 5
Institutional Mistrust Growing skepticism towards institutions affecting land use decision-making processes. Shift from high trust in institutions to increased skepticism and demand for transparency. Future governance will require greater transparency and community engagement to rebuild trust. Societal shifts and past failures increase demand for accountability in land use governance. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Climate-Driven Migration Population dislocation due to climate impacts like wildfires and droughts may strain resources and communities. 4
Environmental Instability Disruptions in ecosystems from climate change threaten land use and community well-being. 5
Affordable Housing Crisis Growing housing demand may lead to increased inequality and urban sprawl, affecting livability. 4
Institutional Mistrust Distrust in institutions can hinder effective policy-making and responses to critical land use challenges. 3
Economic Disparities Widening economic gaps may lead to social unrest and challenges in community cohesion. 4
Technological Disruption Rapid technology change could redefine livelihoods and community structures, causing societal shifts. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Collaborative Foresight Planning Engaging diverse stakeholders in envisioning and planning for multiple alternative futures to address complex challenges. 5
Scenario-Based Strategic Conversations Utilizing video scenarios to stimulate discussions that explore the implications of various future trajectories. 4
Adaptive Land Use Policies Developing flexible land use policies that can respond to changing environmental and social conditions. 5
Community Resilience Building Focusing on strengthening community resilience in the face of climate change and socio-economic challenges. 5
Emphasis on Environmental and Social Equity Prioritizing equity in land use decisions to ensure both people and ecosystems thrive together. 5
Critical Reflection on Future Choices Encouraging critical thinking about the long-term consequences of today’s decisions on future scenarios. 4
Integration of Technology in Planning Leveraging technological advancements to redefine land use and community planning. 4

Technologies

description relevancy src
Techniques used to envision alternative futures and guide strategic planning in land use policies. 5 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5
A method for exploring possible future scenarios to inform decision-making and policy development. 4 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5
Strategies aimed at enhancing community resilience in the face of environmental and economic challenges. 4 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5
Innovative approaches to land management that balance development and conservation goals. 5 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5
Tools that help communities anticipate and plan for environmental changes and challenges. 4 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5
Advancements in technology that redefine realities and improve land use efficiency and sustainability. 5 89c33ff05c7560194e8902922720afa5

Issues

name description relevancy
Climate-Driven Migration Increasing climate impacts may lead to population shifts, affecting urban and rural community dynamics in Oregon. 4
Environmental Instability Challenges like wildfires and droughts are straining the resilience of Oregon’s ecosystems and communities. 5
Affordable Housing Crisis Growing housing demand is creating challenges for community planning and access to housing in Oregon. 5
Rural Economic Development The need for sustainable economic growth in rural areas is becoming increasingly urgent amid changing land use policies. 4
Institutional Mistrust Eroding trust in institutions is complicating policy implementation and community engagement in land use planning. 4
Technological Breakthroughs The potential for technology to redefine land use and community living is a critical area for future exploration. 3
Sustainability vs. Economic Growth The tension between pursuing economic growth and ensuring sustainability is becoming a key issue in land use policy. 5
Individual Freedoms vs. Collective Benefits The debate over the balance between personal liberties and community welfare is emerging as a significant concern. 4