Futures

Goldman Sachs Report: 300 Million Jobs Could Be Automated by AI Innovations, (from page 20230401.)

External link

Keywords

Themes

Other

Summary

A Goldman Sachs report suggests that up to 300 million full-time jobs globally could be automated due to advancements in AI, with 18% of work potentially computerized. The impact is expected to be more pronounced in advanced economies, particularly affecting white-collar jobs such as administrative roles and legal professions. In the U.S. and Europe, two-thirds of jobs are somewhat exposed to AI, with a possibility that AI could fully take over a quarter of all work. While job losses may occur, AI adoption could also lead to increased productivity and a potential 7% boost to global GDP over a decade. The report highlights that most jobs are only partially exposed to automation, suggesting that many workers will still engage in productive activities.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
AI Job Automation 300 million full-time jobs worldwide could be automated by AI advancements. Shift from human labor to automated processes in various sectors. AI may significantly reshape job markets, potentially leading to new roles and industries. The rapid development and deployment of generative AI technologies. 5
Disparity in Job Impact White-collar jobs are at a higher risk of automation compared to manual labor jobs. Increased automation in office roles while manual jobs remain relatively safe from AI. Employment landscape may favor manual labor roles over white-collar positions due to automation. The nature of tasks performed in white-collar versus manual labor jobs. 4
Productivity Boost Widespread AI adoption could increase labor productivity and global GDP by 7% annually. From traditional productivity rates to a new era of enhanced efficiency through AI. Economies could experience unprecedented productivity gains, changing economic dynamics. The efficiency and capabilities of generative AI technologies. 4
Partial Job Automation Most jobs may only be partially exposed to AI, leading to complementary roles. Transition from complete job displacement to partial automation and role enhancement. Workers may find new ways to collaborate with AI, enhancing their productivity. The need for human oversight and creativity in AI applications. 4
Historical Employment Trends Technological innovation historically displaces jobs but also creates new ones. Shift from job displacement fears to recognizing potential job creation through innovation. New job sectors may emerge, balancing out the displacement caused by AI. The cyclical nature of technological advancement and labor market evolution. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Job Automation and Displacement Up to 300 million full-time jobs may be automated, leading to widespread job losses, especially in advanced economies. 5
Economic Inequality Automation could exacerbate economic disparities, impacting primarily white-collar workers and contributing to a divide between advanced and emerging markets. 4
Labor Market Disruption Significant disruption in the labor market as AI technologies change job roles and requirements, leading to uncertainty for many workers. 5
Dependence on Technology Increased reliance on AI for job functions may lead to vulnerabilities if systems fail or are compromised. 4
Skill Mismatch and Workforce Adaptation Workers may face challenges in adapting to new roles or acquiring necessary skills as AI integration continues. 5
Productivity vs. Employment Balance While AI may boost productivity, it raises concerns about whether job growth will keep pace with automation-induced job losses. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Automation of White-Collar Jobs A significant portion of white-collar jobs may be automated, affecting administrative roles and legal professions more than manual labor jobs. 5
Shift in Work Dynamics Businesses are rethinking work processes and structures in response to AI capabilities, indicating a transformation in workplace dynamics. 4
Job Displacement and Creation Cycle Historical trends show that while AI may displace jobs, it also leads to the creation of new employment opportunities over time. 4
Increased Labor Productivity Adoption of AI could lead to increased labor productivity and a potential boost in global GDP. 5
Partial Automation of Workloads Most jobs are only partially exposed to automation, suggesting workers may adapt and enhance productivity rather than be fully replaced. 5
Labor Productivity Boom The potential for a labor productivity boom similar to past technological advancements like the electric motor and personal computer. 4

Technologies

name description relevancy
Generative Artificial Intelligence AI technology capable of generating text, code, and content autonomously, exemplified by platforms like ChatGPT and GPT-4. 5
AI Automation The use of artificial intelligence to automate tasks and processes in various industries, impacting job roles and productivity. 5
AI-driven Labor Market Transformation The potential shift in the labor market dynamics due to AI, leading to job displacement but also new job creation and productivity enhancements. 4

Issues

name description relevancy
AI Automation and Job Displacement The potential for automation to replace 300 million jobs globally raises concerns about unemployment and workforce adaptation. 5
Sector-Specific Impact of AI White-collar jobs are more at risk from AI automation compared to manual labor jobs, affecting sectors differently. 4
Economic Disruption and Growth While AI may lead to job losses, it could also stimulate economic growth and productivity, creating new employment opportunities. 4
Partial Automation of Jobs Most jobs will not be fully automated but will see a shift in workload and responsibilities due to AI integration. 4
Long-Term Effects of Technological Innovation Historically, technological advancements have displaced jobs but also led to long-term employment growth and productivity improvements. 5
Labor Productivity Boom Potential The emergence of AI could lead to a significant increase in labor productivity similar to past technological revolutions. 3