A new study from the University of Bath’s School of Management suggests that individuals with higher cognitive ability were more likely to have voted to remain in the European Union during the Brexit referendum. The study analyzed the voting decisions of a nationally representative sample of 6,366 individuals from 3,183 couples and found that cognitive skills such as memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning, and numerical reasoning were correlated with voting preferences. The researchers also highlighted that low cognitive ability can make individuals more susceptible to misinformation and disinformation, which can influence democratic outcomes. However, the study also found that approximately 36% of leave voters had higher cognitive ability than the average remain voter.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Study claims Brexit voters less intelligent | Shift in public opinion | Higher emphasis on cognitive skills in political decision making | Increasing awareness of the importance of critical thinking |
| Smartest person in a couple voted remain | Shift in voting patterns | Increased correlation between cognitive ability and political preferences | Growing recognition of the influence of intelligence |
| Low cognitive ability more prone to misinformation | Education and awareness | Improved education and critical thinking skills to counter misinformation | Efforts to combat misinformation and disinformation |
| Counteracting misinformation important | Emphasis on democratic process | Increased focus on combating misinformation to protect the democratic process | Concerns about the impact of misinformation on democracy |
| High cognitive ability partner increases likelihood of remain vote | Relationship dynamics | Greater consideration of partner’s cognitive abilities in decision making | Recognition of the influence of relationship dynamics |
| Overlap between cognitive abilities of remain and leave voters | Recognition of diversity | Increased understanding that cognitive abilities vary among voters on both sides of the debate | Acknowledgement of the range of cognitive abilities |